The following books are reviewed in Book Reviews. They were published in 2014, but resonate with current events in America. For example, vigilante movements, ‘the invention of whiteness’ and the demands on women as appendages of political men, as well as those they must adopt to be successful political figures in their own right.
Heath Hardage Lee Winnie Davis Daughter of The Lost Cause, United States of America: Potomac Press, 2014. Blain Roberts Pageants, Parlors, & Pretty Women Race and Beauty in the Twentieth Century South, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 2014.Kate Cote Gillin Shrill Hurrahs Women, Gender, and Racial Violence in South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press, 2013.
Television comments – A Country Practice – A Country Podcast; Searching for an Australian Identity.
I
First 2020 American Presidential Debate in 2016 I watched about to become President, Donald Trump move somewhat menacingly around the stage as former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton spoke.
On this occasion, Covid 19 prevented that from happening. However, former Vice President Biden was subjected to verbal bullying, to which he responded with some ripostes, resulting in the production of T Shirts with the statement ‘Will you shut up, man’.
Some discussion, in my view too much, conflated the men’s behaviour. Chris Wallace, the moderator put their behaviour in context when he later stated that President Trump interrupted Joe Biden and himself more than 144 times. The more recent Joe Biden Town Hall meeting, which was moderated (with the moderator following up questions if he believed that Biden had not answered the question fully) gave viewers the opportunity to hear Biden’s proposed policies, remedies for the racist ideas fostered during Trump’s presidency, and general perspectives on how a Biden/Harris team would bring the country together. Morning Joe reports that a CNN poll, taken after the debate and including one day of polling after the announcement that President Trump has Covid 19, shows that Biden’s position has improved once again. The following analysis of the polls deals with this and the other recent polls.
Analysis of the American presidential polls
Bob McMullan’s Presidential Update 7/10
What an extraordinary week! With only 4 weeks to go to polling day and with millions of Americans having already voted we are now definitely at the pointy end of proceedings.
It is hard to believe that over the last weeks we have had the revelations about Trump’s tax history; the Woodward book about the corona virus; the death of RBG and the consequent fracas about the appointment; the “debate”; the Trump covid diagnosis and treatment and his decision to cut off negotiations about a relief package.
For the first time in weeks this cascade of events appears to be moving the polls, although not dramatically. The current situation, with one caveat I will come back to, has Joe Biden further ahead in the national polling (9%) and in an improved position in all the decisive states. RCP and 538 (and others) have him ahead in
Michigan by 5.2% (538 says 7.5%); Pennsylvania by 6.5%; Wisconsin by 5.6% (538 says 7.0%).
Remember, those three are enough to get to 270.
Florida has improved markedly to give Biden a lead of 3.5%; North Carolina has improved slightly (1.4%); Arizona (3.4%). These three plus the 2nd district in Nevada would put Biden on 334 Electoral College votes.
In the less critical states the trends appear mixed. Biden has moved slightly ahead in Georgia for the first time in both averages. Iowa remains close (RCP has Biden ahead,538 has him behind). In Ohio Biden appears to have fallen back although this result is driven by an outlier poll from Trafalgar which has Trump ahead by4%.
The improving trend for Biden is not reflected in the polling by Trafalgar and Rasmussen, which have a history of showing results more favourable to Republicans. But it is rash to assume they are wrong. The issue is the ” hidden” Trump voters. Most commentators consider that they exist.
Australians would be familiar with a similar phenomenon with an apparent “hidden” Hanson vote. I am not convinced. My theory is that the surprise result in the key rustbelt states was driven by the late breaking trend to Trump amongst undecideds in 2016. If it exists it is hard to believe it is of a scale to justify the difference in outcomes forecast.
In Michigan the difference between the consensus result and Trafalgar is of the order of 7-8%. Given that there are almost 8 million registered voters in Michigan this would mean there would need to be more than half a million hidden voters! And yet, the difference did not show up in the national polling/result differential in 2016. The polling averages were nearly spot-on the result nationally. It is hard to justify an argument that the only hidden Trump vote exists only in the rust belt.
On balance I believe the trend is real and suggests Biden has a clear path to victory and Trump is struggling to establish one. However, it is, to say the least, a dynamic situation and the contradictory polls remain a query over the basic trends.
So, we will have to wait and see.
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CHALLENGING TOMORROW – THE POLITICAL IS ALWAYS PERSONAL
A series on zoom on women’s rights, challenges, perspectives, hopes and empowerment
‘UP FROM UNDER – REACHING THE MOUNTAIN TOP – AND CLAIMING THE SKIES!’
Brilliant & Bold – Bold & Brilliant provides an opportunity to hear from ‘ordinary’ and ‘extraordinary’ women in conversation, with questions, answers, reflections and musings on the state of the world and women’s role in it. Two hours with women sharing experiences, hopes, knowledge and beliefs about where we are right now, and from where we have come.
Sunday 11 October 2020 – via Zoom – 11am UK time … 12noon Pisa, Italy … 9pm Melbourne /Sydney /Canberra, Australia … 6am Tampa, Florida … 4am Denver, Colorado
Jocelynne Scutt is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.
Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!
Time: Oct 11, 2020 11:00 AM London
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88098944189?pwd=dVhhOCtKREkvcmpoRWs1NHJENXNBUT09
Meeting ID: 880 9894 4189
Passcode: 645991
SPEAKERS – HANNAH TURNER, FELICITY BETH, ANNA KERR, YOLANDA COPES-STEPNEY
Anna Kerr is founder and Principal Solicitor of Feminist Legal Clinic Inc. which is a community legal service based in Sydney, Australia… Anna has been admitted as a solicitor for 28 years, beginning her career with the Aboriginal Legal Service…She has also undertaken short stints teaching, lecturing and in government roles.
Born in Perth, Western Australia, Felicity Beth has lived in the United States since the mid-1970s, where she has worked for some 30 years in the hospitality industry…Felicity has spoken at numerous USA primary and secondary schools on the topic of Australia – Australian politics, European/USA influences on Australia and its history since colonisation, and in relation to Australian Indigenous people. For five years she worked as a volunteer with Denver, Colorado Rape Assistance Hotline, and considers that her political interests and activism stem from her growing up with political discussion raging around the dinner table.
Hannah Turner is a recent graduate of Northumbria University. She graduated with a first-class honour’s degree in Law and received the Linda Sykes Memorial award for her efforts after receiving the highest overall mark in her cohort. She completed her master’s dissertation on the topic of consent within the Sexual Offences Act 2003 and it was at this time she found this topic to be a real passion…Hannah is currently working in a law firm in the North East of England. She is working predominantly on criminal appeal cases and prison law matters.
An entrepreneur, podcaster, presenter and writer, Yolanda Copes-Stepney lives in London. After gaining her degree in journalism, she went on to become a freelance journalist, PR and content specialist working for international brands. At the beginning of 2016 she founded Speak&Do, a media agency with all-female staff that manage and represents influencers in the activism and wellbeing space. She is founder of Speak On, a podcast and event series that explores culture and society; Festival Of Confidence, and ConfidenceFest, YouTube shows, events and retreats designed to empower women; and Own Brand Agency that provides affordable brand and personal profile development for SME’s, charity organisations and individuals. Plus a few more…She is a proud tattooed geek and dedicated Star Wars’ fan.
Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!
Further zoom meetings at 11.00 am London (9.00 pm Australia):
Nov 8, 2020
Dec 13, 2020
Jan 10, 2021
Feb 14, 2021
Mar 14, 2021
Apr 11, 2021
May 9, 2021
Jun 13, 2021
Jul 11, 2021
Aug 8, 2021
Sep 12, 2021
Added to Book Reviews: Charity Norman Collection (kindle Edition) – 5 novels, with topics ranging over adoption, domestic violence, impact of moving from one country to another, transgender and cult control.
Robin's Room 