Week beginning 9 June 2021

Book Reviews this week are the non fiction, Superman’s Not Coming, and a novel that features some of the same issues, Patricia Hunt Holmes’ Crude Ambition.

Erin Brockovich with Suzanne Boothby, Superman’s Not Coming Our National Water Crisis and What We the People Can Do About It, Pantheon Books 2021

I saw the film, Erin Brockovich, while travelling and fully immersed myself in the fight for the people of Hinkley. Now, having read Erin Brockovich and Suzanne Boothby’s book, which investigates the water crisis in America more generally, I feel as enthusiastic about Brockovich’s journeys, not only fighting on people’s behalf, but providing them with the tools and encouragement to act for themselves.

Patricia Hunt Holmes Crude Ambition River Grove Books Austin, TX, 2021. Is a fictional account of landowners’ greed in responding to oil companies’ offers to drill their land for oil. Fracking and its impact on water, leading to deaths, and the complicity of legal firms, lawyers and law enforcement officer’s in hiding the truth provide a strong political statement. Women’s role is also explored, with some mixed commentary and conclusions, but on the whole a largely feminist account.

Centre for Stories

The Annual Report, 2020, for the Centre for Stories landed on my desk this week. The Centre for Stories is the West Australian initiative of Caroline and John Wood. The Centre for Stories ‘cultivates stories that inspire thought, spark empathy and challenge intolerance…empowering people whose experiences and perspectives are often marginalised’.

The Chair, Coralie Bishop, points to significant achievements in her message. These include: expanding reach and impact in Perth’s art and culture community; suburban, regional and international work and recognition; and a diverse program of ‘ public lectures, personal interviews, mentoring of emerging writers and storytellers, providing hot desks and book clubs’.

More information can be found at:

http://www.facebook.com/CentreforStories

http://www.twitter.com/Centre4Stories

http://www.instagram.com/centrefor stories

Forgotten Australian TV Plays: The Shifting Heart

by Stephen Vagg appears in his series on forgotten Australian TV plays, at https://www.filmink.com.au/forgotten-australian-tv-plays-the-shifting-heart/

The journal, FilmInk, at https://www.filmink.com.au, is a great source of information on what is happening now, and what happened in the past in the film and television worlds. More at Television: Comments

Why Kate Winslet lobbying for ‘a bulgy bit of belly’ matters

By Garry Maddox

June 4, 2021 — 12.19pm https://www.smh.com.au/culture/tv-and-radio/why-kate-winslet-lobbying-for-a-bulgy-bit-of-belly-matters-20210603-p57xnr.html

All is not doom and gloom for Labor Voters

By Bob McMullan Jun 4, 2021

Credit- Unsplash

The published polling data does not support the prevailing orthodoxy that the ALP is trailing, failing to catch up and headed to inevitable defeat.

A recent article in The Economist about Australia’s Covid travel restrictions asserted that PM Morrison “is well ahead in the polls”. This appears to reflect the prevailing orthodoxy, even amongst Labor voters. Some media reports suggest that this may also be the view of many Labor MPs and Senators. This is a puzzle to me.

The facts suggest otherwise.  The most reliable consolidated reporting of Australian published polling is by the Poll Bludger and can be found on his website. This data shows the Labor party has been either level or ahead in the polls all year, and the long-term trend in the primary vote has been up since last September. The two-party-preferred trendline has put Labor ahead all year. In fact, the current headline of the website’s analysis has the ALP on 51.7%, a swing of 3.2% since the last election.

Recent experience tells us to be wary of any polling. The methodological challenges and variable response rates suggest caution, but those problems are constant. If the trend is up, then that should not be affected by the challenges faced by pollsters. Yet, one then hears of the awful result in the Upper Hunter by-election and speculation about its consequences for Labor federally. No serious analyst would base an assessment of likely federal election results on a state by-election. Everyone was quick to assert that the strong results for Labor in State elections in WA and Queensland were not indicators of the likely federal outcome. I think that is probably correct. But if it is, why on earth would you seek to place any national significance on a state by-election? I understand why a local member whose seat overlaps with the relevant State seat might be concerned. But to project beyond that is either stupid or wilfully misleading. 

Of course, it is never a safe option to argue against the prevailing orthodoxy. It is possible that the doom-sayers are right. But the numbers don’t support the thesis that Labor is trailing, not catching up and inevitably headed for defeat. Let’s look at the numbers over the last twelve months. From Newspoll, Labor’s primary vote reached a nadir of 34% on several occasions up to 7 November. Since that time, it has been consistently higher, ranging from 36% to 41%. Essential polls have shown a similar pattern. They reached a low point of 31% in September 2020 and since that time have been consistently higher, although lower than Newspoll numbers.

It is too early to establish any pattern from the new kid on the block, Resolve Strategic. Two-party-preferred numbers tell a similar story. Across Newspoll, Essential and Roy Morgan, Labor has been equal with the coalition or ahead in every poll included in the Poll Bludger tables since Australia Day. By no means do I take this data as gospel. The fundamental problems with contemporary polling are too well known. However, I take polling more seriously than self-serving “gut feelings”, which always seem to coincide with the prejudices or preferences of the people concerned. What I think it is safe to conclude is that the ALP’s position is clearly improving and on the face of it Labor is in a position to be competitive in any election held in the next few months. Politics is a volatile business, and anything can happen between now and the election, but nothing will be gained by taking actions based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the objective circumstances. 

This article originally appeared in Pearls and Irritations. NB The title attributed to this article by Pearls and Irritations has been corrected.