Week beginning 18 May 2022

The books reviewed this week are one non-fiction – Marc Schapiro’s Beatle Wives: The Women the Men We Loved Fell in Love With and a novel by Joan Long, The Finalist. Both were provided to me by NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.

Marc Shapiro, Beatle Wives The Women the Men We Loved Fell in Love With Riverdale Avenue Books 2021.

Marc Shapiro has been effective in providing more of the stories of the women who became part of the Beatles’ lives, as wives, lovers and supporters. Although the Beatles’ contribution is quite an important part of the material, they do not take over. Shapiro has been effective in giving the women a voice. Their voices are heard through others’ interviews with the women and reports, rather than first-hand through Shapiro. However, despite the shortcomings of this method – personal interviews (where possible) would surely provide a livelier text based on Shapiro’s own questions, responses and follow up research – this is a useful collection of information about women whose lives were impacted by their relationships with the famous men whose music and lyrics were such an important part of the music world. See the full review at Books: Reviews.

 

Joan Long The Finalist Level Books, 2021

Joan Long’s murder mystery is an ideal beach read, although the beauty of the island setting, with white sands, comfortable cottages with themes such as Oasis, and luxurious meals served with plenty of alcohol might pall as a woman wandering the sands is violently murdered. When another character is shot in his sleep perhaps one might look up from The Finalist, relieved that the beach on which it is being enjoyed is well populated, people are happily picnicking and children making sandcastles. In contrast, The Finalist takes place in a closed setting, the Thrill Seeker having made a lengthy sea trip from Florida to deposit five finalists at the island then making a quick getaway, to return in a week. See the complete review at Books: Reviews

After the Canberra Covid report: Anthony Albanese and Voice to Parliament; Bob McMullan – update on 2022 Federal Election comments, plus an addendum not previously published; Heather Cox Richardson comments on Jen Psaki’s retirement from the White House; Strictly Ballroom; Indian Pacific; Ukraine and Eurovision 2022.

Covid Canberra

Vaccinations look great on 12 May with 80.6% of children between 5]five and eleven having received one dose; with 66.5% in this age group having received two doses. 75.7% of people over sixteen have received three doses.

The case numbers are not so good, with 1,132 new cases; 74 people in hospital; 5 in ICU and one ventilated.

The check in app is no longer mandatory. however, health facilities will now be able to use an updated app as a health screening tool on a voluntary basis.

The new cases on 13 May number 1,217; with 74 people in hospital; 4 in ICU; and one ventilated.

New cases on 14 May were 1,oo1; with 71 in hospital; 5 in ICU; and 2 ventilated.

On 15 May there were 885 new cases; 75 in hospital; 6 in ICU; and 2 ventilated.

On 16 May the ACT Government was able to announce the closure of one of the mass vaccination clinics as the vaccination rate in the ACT is so high. Free vaccinations will remain available.

There were 887 new cases; 75 people in hospital; and 5 in ICU.

On 17 May there were 1,129 new cases; 80 people in hospital; 5 in ICU; 2 ventilated; and one life lost.

New cases on 18 May – 1,098; people hospitalised – 74, with 4 in ICU and one ventilated.

Covid Vaccinations: 80.6% one dose (5 – 11) ; 67.2% two doses (5 – 11); 97.2% two doses 5+; 76.1% Boosters (three doses, aged 16+).

Bob McMullan

Probability websites are picking Labor to win

I am much too scarred by the 2019 experience to make an election prediction in 2022.

However, as I remain fascinated by the prospects and challenges in the remainder of the election campaign, I have studied the two websites I am aware of which are trying to assess the probabilities of various election outcomes based on polling and, in one case, other data.

The poll bludger website provides the best overview of polling data but does not attempt to use it to make forecasts.

In a recent edition the poll bludger referred to two websites which are attempting to do just that for this election.

Their methodologies are different but their results are remarkably similar.

The first website, Amarium Interreta (AI) which uses polling and other data to make their predictions suggests that there is a 68% chance of a Labor majority government and 16% chance of a hung parliament.
Their track record in calling the South Australian and West Australian elections was quite good. They forecast that the Liberals would win between 1 and 9 seats in WA, which was quite a bold call at the time.

Amarium Interreta data suggests on a seat-by-seat basis that Labor will win 8 seats: Longman; Robertson; Pearce; Braddon; Lindsay; Boothby; Bass and Swan.

This is not a prediction by AI but rather the net outcome of 100 sample runs for each seat. I have chosen the seats not held by Labor in which they suggest the ALP came out ahead on more than 50% of the runs. There were no Labor held seats which came out as losses on this basis and no new independents were up to the 50% mark, although some were close.

The alternative site, Australian Election Forecasts, is more poll-based.
It predicts a 70.8% chance of a Labor majority outcome, with 10.5% chance of a Liberal majority and 18.7% of a hung parliament. On the individual seats, AEF also suggests Labor is likely to win eight seats, although the 8 are slightly different: Chisholm, Braddon, Reid, Robertson, Pearce, Bass, Swan and Boothby.

It also suggests no Labor losses and no additional independent victories.
The net outcome they both predict would be: ALP 77; LNP 68; Independents and minor parties 6.

If one looks to the other type of probability assessment, the bookmakers, it shows a very similar result. On TAB they have a Labor government at $1.33 while the possibility of a Liberal victory is priced at$3.20. A majority Labor government is $1.80. Interestingly, on a seat by seta basis TAB has Labor
as favorites in 8 coalition held seats (notice a pattern here?): Chisholm; Reid; Longman; Pearce; Swan; Boothby; Bass and Braddon. This set of predictions differs from the others in that TAB expect two “teal” independents to win, Zoe Daniels in Goldstein and Allegra Spender in Wentworth.

The TAB probabilities would result in an election outcome of; Labor 77; LNP 66; others 8.

The significance of these predictions is that they are intended to predict the outcome on the 21 st , rather than merely suggesting the current situation with two weeks to go as polling attempts to do.

That all three suggest an ALP majority government with 77 seats does not move me to make a prediction. I am not even convinced that the five seats listed in all the forecasts (Pearce; Swan; Boothby; Braddon and Bass) are sure things. The evidence on Pearce, Swan and Boothby seems compelling. However, I think most of the assessments about seats in Tasmania are not much more than guesswork.

What is clear is that the coalition has only a very narrow path to majority government. Should they lose the three seats in WA and SA they will be reduced to 73 seats even without any impact of independents. Then they need to win 3 seats to deliver a majority. It is hard to see where they will
come from.

Therefore, the forecasts about the probability of a Liberal/ National majority government seem about right. Not impossible but very difficult. They could rely on Bob Katter to support them in minority but could not count on any of the others, although some might be possible.

The ALP has a more credible path to majority but the seats are not easy to find. If Labor is in a minority but is the largest party, they should be able to rely on Wilkie and Bandt to provide supply and confidence but would not want to have to rely on any of the others.

All in all, it is still all to play for over the next two weeks. The number of people voting early continues to rise, so that may suggest an early lead is worth more than it used to be. But it is still too difficult for a partisan to be brave enough to make a prediction.

First published in Pearls and Irritations.

Addendum

Probabilities addendum 16 May

The key elements of the previous analysis still hold. The result must still be in doubt, but it is very difficult to see a path for the coalition to majority government.

The probability websites have moved even further towards Labor, but they retain the residual possibility of a minority Liberal government supported by Katter and Sharkie and the outside chance of either a majority coalition victory or a hung parliament in which the government is unclear.

The AI analysis now shows a possible 10 seats for Labor with the addition of Reid and Chisholm. It also suggests that Kooyong, Goldstein, Ryan, Brisbane and Banks are now very close.

AEF at this stage suggests that in addition to the previous 8 seats Goldstein, Lindsay, Banks and Hasluck are in play.

Simon Jackman, on the basis of an Implied Probability of Winning (IPOW) derived from Sportsbet’s odds suggests Labor are favorites in 78 seats, the coalition 65 and others 8.

A major polling exercise by YouGov indicated up to 11 new seats for Labor.
A counterweight to all this optimism is recent polling by Utting as published in the West Australian which, while it shows Labor still winning Swan and Pearce, suggests a major falling off from the very big swings suggested earlier.
I fear that the probability indicators are over-estimating the Labor vote and that the result may be closer on the day than the current projections indicate. However, the probabilities do indicate a likely Labor win, however close it may be.

Anthony Albanese and a Voice to Parliament

Labor leader Anthony Albanese would work quickly to establish a Voice to Parliament for Australia’s Indigenous people should he become prime minister after the federal election.

He says it is not about a third chamber for parliament but establishing politeness and good manners so that if there is an issue that affects the health, education, housing and lives of First Nations people they should be consulted.

“This is a change that has been a long time coming. We’ve been talking about it since at least the end of last century,” Mr Albanese told the ABC’s Insiders program on Sunday.

“I will consult with First Nations people about the timetable. I will reach out across the parliament … to try to secure support as much as possible.”

He said it should be recognised in the constitution that Australia’s history did not begin in 1788.

“This is a nation changing moment. Just as the apology to the stolen generations made our country stronger, this is a generous offer for First Nations people,” he said.

Heather Cox Richardson – Jen Psaki, press secretary, leaves the White House

May 13, 2022 (Friday)

Today was White House press secretary Jen Psaki’s last day at the White House after 15 months. She set out to restore truth, transparency, and accountability of the administration to the press, and to that end she has held 224 press briefings—together, all of former president Trump’s press secretaries combined held only 205 in his four years in office. Psaki gave her first press conference on January 20, 2021, the day of President Joe Biden’s inauguration, telling the press, “I have deep respect for the role of a free and independent press in our democracy and for the role all of you play,” before answering questions.

Psaki’s tenure has been notable for her ability to parry loaded questions, turning them into opportunities to provide facts and information. Her quick answers to leading questions have been labeled “Psaki bombs,” and they have enabled her to redirect the conversation without engaging in the hostility that former press secretaries sometimes fell into. Her conduct and evident respect for reporters has been an important corrective to the disrespect with which the press has often been treated by lawmakers in the recent past.

When she finished today’s briefing, she thanked members of the press. “You have challenged me, you have pushed me, you have debated me, and at times we have disagreed. That is democracy in action. That is it working.” She continued: “Thank you for what you do. Thank you for making me better. And most importantly, thank you for the work every day you do to make this country stronger.”

Karine Jean-Pierre will take Psaki’s spot as the White House press secretary. The first Black woman and openly LBGTQ person to serve as press secretary, Jean-Pierre has a background as a political analyst and worked as chief of staff for Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2020 presidential campaign…

This is the start of Heather Cox Richardson’s post for the 13th May, and speaks for many of us who have enjoyed Jen Psaki’s ripostes and thoughtful press conferences. She has been an absolute star, and the videos of her appearances are always inspiring to watch. I wonder where she will appear next, and hope that I shall be able to see her in action again.

Thirty years after Cannes premiere of Strictly Ballroom, the fully restored Aussie classic returns

The circle of life. Strictly Ballroom heads back to Cannes, where the Baz Luhrmann journey started. Photo: Mary Evans Picture Library

Louise Talbot

Entertainment Editor

It’s time for a bit of nostalgia.

The year is 1992. Paul Keating was prime minister. The Reserve Bank cash rate hovered around 6.50 per cent. A loaf of white bread was $1.50 and Billy Ray Cyrus’s Achy Breaky Heart topped the ARIA charts.

And, ballroom dancing was considered a suburban, culturally quirky sporting contest.

Enter director and co-writer Baz Luhrmann and his heart-warming, low-budget, coming-of-age movie in August of that year, Strictly Ballroom … and everything changed overnight.

Presenter Margaret Pomeranz from SBS’s The Movie Show was on a waterfront location after the film’s premiere at the Cannes Film Festival in France, where she interviewed the stars of the show.

The reception for the $3 million film (it grossed $80 million worldwide) at Cannes was overwhelming.

It received a seven-minute standing ovation, won the festival’s Award of the Youth for Foreign Film, and the surprise hit suddenly “signalled the beginning of a new era in Australian cinema”, according to the National Film and Sound Archive (NFSA).

“In my wildest dreams I couldn’t have imagined what happened last night, happened.

“We could not get out of the cinema … people started to dance at the end of the film in the aisles,” Luhrmann, who went on to make classics such as Moulin Rouge (which opened Cannes in 2001) and The Great Gatsby in 2013, said that morning.

“We have one singular great asset in our country and that is originality. We don’t have this ready-made culture of the European film market,” he said, still reeling from the enormously warm reception.

Star of the show Paul Mercurio, these days a Shire councillor and judge on Seven’s Dancing With The Stars, told Pomeranz at the time the audience reaction was “magical”.

“I was actually in shock …” he said.

Now, 30 years later, the film has been restored by the NFSA and is the first Australian film selected for Cannes Classics since Wake in Fright (1971) in 2009.

It has also been selected to premiere at the 69th Sydney Film Festival.

‘Beyond my imagining’

Luhrmann, reflecting on the Cannes Film Festival being the launching pad for his “little film”, is heading back to where his career exploded.

“It would have been beyond my imagining 30 years ago when our little film was plucked almost magically to be screened in Un Certain Regard at the 12 o’clock screening, that exactly 30 years later I would be returning to the Festival de Cannes, having previously opened the festival twice with my films, and now this year with Elvis,” Luhrmann said in a statement on May 11.

“I always remember on that terrifying first screening of Strictly Ballroom when, at the end, a crowd gathered around us and a security guard reached over to pull us out.

“He said to me ‘Monsieur, from this point on, your life will never be the same again’.”

Luhrmann praised the “diligent efforts that led to the restoration of the original Strictly Ballroom to this glorious new high-definition cinema presentation”.

NFSA chief executive officer Patrick McIntyre said the restoration program gave audiences “an opportunity to re-engage with favourite movies and re-appraise their impact”.

“It allows us to shine a light on the incredibly diverse achievements of Australian filmmaking over time,” he said.

“We couldn’t be more excited that the restored Strictly Ballroom will feature at Cannes alongside the premiere of Baz Luhrmann’s Elvis, illustrating a truly extraordinary career arc.”

Adds their chief curator Gayle Lake: “In 1992 the film signalled the emergence of an incredible creative originality coming out of Australia which has consistently exploded on international screens over the past 30 years.”

Those marvellous Strictly Ballroom moments

Not that we need reminding of the classic quotes and performances in Luhrmann’s first breakout feature, but thanks to Screen Australia, let’s go down memory lane as we prepare for the relaunch.

As Luhrmann said this week about being told his life would never be the same: “Indeed, he was right. Thank you, Cannes.”

Indian Pacific

What did we miss overnight? The terrain has changed markedly as we move through the Western Australian wheatbelt and pass country towns.

Breakfast and lunch were served on the train before our arrival at East Perth Railway station.

Upon arrival we scanned our 2G2 passes – which are now redundant -collected our large luggage, and boarded our coach to the hotel. The Indian Pacific trip was over, but Perth has plenty to offer and that part of the journey will be described next week.

Although we enjoyed the Ghan trip more, possibly because our destination, Uluru, has been on agenda for years. Lamentably, only Covid restrictions brought it to the top of our list. We are so glad to have this experience.

The Indian Pacific trip suffered a little from another Covid related feature – a lot of new inexperienced staff had to be employed to replace those that had left when Covid shut down the service. They were all personable and keen to please, so what we missed in smooth service was replaced by enthusiasm. The meals were excellent, the beds comfortable, and there was always room in the lounge for a drink, nibbles and a chat. Some people set up their laptops or read their kindles/books. The atmosphere was relaxed and friendly.

The meal service was different from our Ghan experience, as on that train social distancing was an important factor, and we sat two to a table. On this occasion we shared our table with another couple of people, each time a different pair, for each meal. This was a pleasant experience, and quite illuminating – a wide range of people shared our interest in travelling on the Indian Pacific.

A walk down St Georges Terrace, Perth was familiar but new flower beds have joined the concrete kangaroos in the street scape.