Both books reviewed this week were provided to me by NetGalley in exchange for an honest review.
Daniel Talbot In Love With Movies Columbia University Press 2022
Daniel Talbot’s In Love With Movies is a delight, from the first chapters about the early years in independent theatres; though Those Who Made Me Laugh in Part 2; Part 3 which, in Unsung Film Pioneers, covers collectors, early distributors and exhibitors; part 4, Acquisitions is an engrossing wander through some of the films shown in Talbot’s theatres; Directors In My Life, enumerates those such as Yasujiro Ozu, Nagisa Oshima, Ousmane Sembene, Roberto Rossellini, Jean-Luc Gordar, Rainer Werner Fassbinder, Wim Wenders, and Werner Herzog; Parts 6, 7, 8 and 9 with ‘a memory project’, includes more directors, Criteria and Reflections; Portraits, including friends and legendary a film critic, in Part 10; followed by more on independent theatres in Upper West Side Cinemas; and an epilogue written by Toby Talbot who edited the book. There are excerpts from Dan Talbot’s Festival Notes, an interview between Talbot and Stanley Kauffmann, and an intriguingly titled, Dreams on My Screen. Books: Reviews
George Thomas Clark They Make Movies BooksGoSocial 2021
They Make Movies is a combination of fiction, real events, and interpretations of the protagonists’ attitude towards the films in which they appeared or directed. Some of the events are seemingly told by the subject of the chapter, others appear to be based on reality or the author’s interpretation, described as if they are addressed directly by the subject. The stories are told with humour and, at times, sharp impact. The process is clever, providing researched topics and events, with the aid of fictional devices. Authenticity is supported by the list of film sources, although there are no footnotes to disturb the flow of the account – or to clarify what material is accurate and what might be fictional. As exciting as this presentation could be, I found that I could not warm to the execution of this style in They Make Movies, although some of the observations are well made. Books: Reviews
The information which appears after the Canberra Covid report: masks for Covid 19; UK Tory leadership, Tom Watson; Trump and presidency – a startling admission; Bob McMullan – a thoughtful article on the US Senate mid term elections, first of a series; Democrats and fundraising; Cindy Lou has coffee in a paper cup.
Covid in Canberra since the end of lockdown
Vaccinations – 80.6% : 1 dose, ages 5 – 11; 69.4 % 2 doses, ages 5 – 11; 97.4 % 2 doses , aged 5+; 77.5% boosters, making 3 doses , aged 16+. The rules for boosters have recently changed, and pharmacy waiting times have increased as people take advantage of the availability of additional doses of vaccine for the expanded age groups. Fourth dose take up is not as yet being recorded.
14 July – New cases reported, 1,367; people in hospital, 137; people in ICU 5; people ventilated, 3.
15 July – New cases reported, 1,208; people in hospital, 135; people in ICU, 4; and 3 ventilated.
16 July – 1,104 new cases; 4 people in ICU; and 3 people ventilated. 17 July – 956 new cases; 167 people in hospital; 6 people in ICU; and 3 people ventilated. 18 July – 887 new cases; 171 people in hospital; 5 people in ICU; and 3 people ventilated. 19 July – 1,221 new cases; 170 people in hospital; 6 in ICU; and 3 ventilated. 20 July – 961 new cases; 160 people in hospital; 4 in ICU; and 2 ventilated.
I noticed that more people are wearing masks in shopping centres today. The photo below looks even better.
UK Tory Leadership Comment from Tom Watson
The Penny Mordaunt Special*
Tom Watson Jul 16
I disappoint myself being glued to Twitter. Two and a half years after leaving Parliament, a Tory leadership race has reduced me to scrolling an iPhone for news a thousand times a day.
It looks like Penny Mordaunt is doing so well that her ministerial colleagues can’t afford to let her get on the ballot paper. As the current rules only allow Conservative party members a choice between two candidates, backroom deals will trade votes to squeeze her out. If I were Rishi Sunak, that’s what I’d be doing.
For election strategists, Penny Mordaunt is to Boris Johnson what Cillit Bang was to Mr Muscle. He sacked her from the Cabinet. She owes him little loyalty. Vote Penny? Bang, and the dirt is gone.
To voters, she’s a blank canvass. She can paint a fresh and new picture of conservative Britain. As she doesn’t have much of a record, she offers an unprecedented opportunity for the Conservatives to renew in office that it looks like they’re about to squander.
My former parliamentary colleagues in Labour will be praying for a Rishi Sunak/Liz Truss run-off this week.
* why the asterisk in the subject line?
The fresh new start argument also applies to Tom Tugendhat but looking at his numbers, he is doubtful to make the cut. It’s a pity because he is a brave and honourable man. **
**Tom Tugendhat (along with Kemi Badenoch) has now been eliminated, and the race has been reduced to three candidates, Penny Mordaunt, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss.
What ?
And now for a thoughtful article about American politics! This is the first of a series about the mid-term elections.
Trump may save the Democrat’s Senate bacon in November.
Bob McMullan
All the signs point to a disastrous result for the Democrats in the House of Representatives in the mid-terms in November.
Inflation, the unpopularity of the president and the usual mid-term set-back for the incumbent President’s party should combine to deliver a comfortable majority for the
Republicans in the House. After all, the Democrats have only the slimmest of majorities to begin with.
The extent to which the reaction to the Supreme Court decision in overturning Roe vs Wade will change the electoral equation in the House is unknowable at this stage but may prove to be a mitigating factor in November. This may reduce the losses but it is very hard to see
the Democrats holding on in the House.
However, the Senate may paint a different picture. In the state-wide races like Senate seats (and Governor’s races) candidates are more exposed and their merits count for more. And Trump has delivered some candidates of very
doubtful quality which should give the Democrats a chance to hang on and perhaps even to make gains.
By way of background, the 100 member Senate is currently split 50/50 with the Vice president having a casting vote. In 2022 35 Senate seats are up for election. It would normally be only 34 but a Senator from Oklahoma is retiring early even though he is only 86!
Of the 35 seats in contest the Republicans hold 21 and the Democrats 14. This means that the continuing Senators are 36 Democrats and 29 Republicans. However, many of the Republican held seats up for election this year are rock solid Republican strongholds, including the special election in Oklahoma.
The influential Cook Report suggests as many as 16 of the 21 Republican seats can be considered safe. This is substantially correct, but there may be interesting issues to watch in four of the “safe” seats.
This would mean 12 certain extra seats, taking the Republicans to 41.
The other four usually safe seats are Iowa, Missouri, Utah and Alaska.
In Iowa, the Senator seeking re-election for a six year term, Senator Grassley, will be 89 on election day and 95 at the end of the term he is seeking! Early polling was very strong for Grassley but since the Democrat primary in which they chose Michael Franken the most recent polling has seen the gap narrowing. It is difficult to see Grassley losing but it will be
worth watching on the night.
In Missouri the problem the Republicans have is a potentially very controversial candidate. Eric Greitjens is a previous Governor who lost office as a result of a series of scandals. At the moment he is leading in the polls for the August 2 primary, although only narrowly. His potential candidature has mobilized senior Republicans in the state to support an Independent Republican. It would not be unprecedented for the Republicans to lose the
Senate seat in Missouri due to the selection of an unacceptable candidate. Should Greitjens win the primary it will be another worth watching on the night.
In Utah the interest is generated by a strong Independent candidate, Evan McMullin. He has managed to persuade the Democrats not to run for the seat and as a consequence has an outside chance of beating the incumbent Republican, Mike Lee. Lee was an early critic of Trump but signed on to the “Big Lie” about the stolen election.
The Alaska Senate election is interesting because it is a contest between Lisa Murkowski, a Republican who voted to impeach Trump, and a Trump loyalist Kelly Tshibaka. The interesting question is, should Murkowski lose the primary will she still contest the election as an Independent or take advantage of new voting system in Alaska which will allow the top four candidates in the primary ballot to compete in a ranked choice election in November. I think Murkowski is most likely to win in November.
Should any of these potential Independents win they would not necessarily deprive the Republicans of a majority but they would create more opportunities for negotiation about legislation and appointments.
Nevertheless, the wise thing to do is assume that the Republicans will win all four seats in one way or the other. This would take them to 45 seats.
The Democrats have 42 “safe seats” and four others they are likely to win: Illinois; Colorado; Connecticut and Washington state. If we assume that the Republicans are likely to win 45 seats and the Democrats 46, that leaves 9 to be fought over:
Arizona (D)
Georgia (D)
New Hampshire (D)
Nevada (D)
Pennsylvania(R)
Wisconsin (R)
North Carolina(R)
Ohio (R) and
Florida (R).
I intend to assess the prospects in each of these states and follow-up on them and any other developments of interest in the Senate race on a regular basis.
Arizona
Trump’s support for Blake Masters as Republican candidate for the Arizona Senate seat appears to be a blessing for the Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly. The primary will be held on 2 August but polling suggests Masters is leading the internal Republican race by about 7%. However, he does not appear to be the strongest candidate for the general election. At this stage the polling suggests that Kelly is leading Masters by 9-10%. This would be a very
difficult gap to close by November.
Georgia
The situation here is similar. Herschel Walker, the Trump endorsed Senate candidate, staggers from one crisis to another. This does not mean he cannot win in what is still a slightly Republican state but it makes it harder for the Republicans than it otherwise would be. A recent poll had the Democrat incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock, ahead by 10%. This is an outlier and probably wrong. The RCP average of polls has Warnock ahead by 1-2%.
Given the numerous vulnerabilities of Walker I think Warnock has a better than even chance of pulling off another unlikely victory.
New Hampshire
The situation in New Hampshire is not clear. The Republican primary is not until September and there is no current sign that I have seen of a Trump-endorsed candidate in the field, The incumbent Democrat Senator, Maggie Hassan, is a former Governor and seems a strong candidate. She won very narrowly last time but should win this time unless national trends count too strongly against her. The lack of a Republican candidate means there in no useful polling data to serve as a guide to the likely outcome. Such current data as there is suggests Hassan is ahead of any of the Republican contenders by more than 4%, but this is likely to change once the candidate becomes clear.
Nevada
The Republicans seem to have selected a reasonably good candidate in Nevada in Adam Laxalt to run against the incumbent Democrat Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. Recent polling suggests Cortez Masto has her nose in front but it is likely to be a close contest in November.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania is another state where Trump’s influence in the Republican primary has opened the door for the Democrats to have a chance of making a gain in the Senate. Trump supported Dr Oz, because he always said nice things about him in his (Oz’s) TV programs! Oz is handicapped by the impression, probably true, that he actually comes from New Jersey, and the extreme positions he had to take up to win the Trump endorsement and
then to win the primary. Early polling has the Democrat candidate, John Fetterman, ahead by between 4 and 9%. This would be a gain for the Democrats because the retiring Senator is a Republican. The key question is whether the national trends will be sufficient to enable Oz to close the gap.
Wisconsin
The opportunity for the Democrats in Wisconsin is generated by the apparent weakness of the incumbent Republican Senator, Ron Johnson. His approval numbers are very low (37%) and he does not poll well against any of the Democrat alternative candidates. The Democrats will choose their candidate on August 9 and there does not appear to be a clear favorite. They all poll well enough against Johnson to suggest a close race in November. It is hard to believe that an incumbent Republican Senator could lose in the electoral climate in the USA in 2022, but if anyone can do it Ron Johnson can.
North Carolina
The Senate contest in North Carolina is close at the moment between the Republican candidate Ted Budd and the Democrat Cheri Beasley. However, Budd has been consistently ahead by between 3 and 4%. Despite the narrow margin and some signs of improved prospects for the Democrats in recent national polls it is not clear what path to victory Ms. Beasley has. The incumbent Republican Senator is retiring.
Ohio
Ohio is a state which is going steadily more Republican but in which the Democrats have an opportunity to make a Senate gain in 2022. With the retirement of popular Republican Senator Portman and the subsequent decision to choose a Trump backed candidate, JD Vance, the Democrat Tim Ryan is currently leading in some polls and is competitive in all of them. It would be a surprise if Ryan were to win in 2022 but it appears to be a realistic
possibility.
Florida
It is hard to see incumbent Republican senator, Marco Rubio, being beaten, Trump won Florida easily and Ron de Santis is running for re-election as Governor which should help the Republican turnout. However, intelligent observers suggest that it is a seat to watch and the Democrats have put up a strong candidate in Val Deemings. Current polling has Rubio ahead by at least 5% and up to 9%.
The Democrats have to win four of these nine states to maintain their 50/50 status which would enable them to continue to use the Vice-President’s casting vote. As they are currently leading in five of the states the evidence suggests that Donald Trump’s control of the Republican party has given the Democrats a realistic chance of maintaining Senate control from 2022-2024.
Some good news for Democrats
Cindy Lou comments on a casual coffee and delicious bread
While I waited for my Indian take away (by the way, the advertised 10% deduction for pick up is not operating although advertised on the menu) I had a coffee and delicious savoury sweet bread close by.
Simple seating, trays and tongs for collecting your bread, pleasant coffee in a takeaway cup – a nice place to wait for your takeaway.
And certainly a great place to collect all sorts of delightful treats…
And there is much more …
Robin's Room 