Week beginning 23 November 2022*

• Addition – Bob McMullan Victorian Election Prospects

Steve Baltin Anthems We Love 29 Iconic Artists on the Hit Songs That Shaped Our Lives Harper Horizon 2022.

Thank you, NetGalley, for providing me with this uncorrected proof for review.

What a tremendous adventure this book provides, down memory lane, into meeting new (for me) artists and songs and gaining an understanding of the work, the artists, the inspiration for some of the material, the role honouring the originator of such inspiration plays in their progress, and the productions in which some of the songs are used. Steve Baltin includes enlightening interviews with the artists and some of the people who used the songs for productions, as well as commentary of his own. There is a great deal of interesting material about covers of the songs that Baltin has designated as anthems. These discussions are as fascinating as the songs that have been chosen and Baltin’s reasons for his choices. Books: Reviews

Music and song charts, and the political use of songs has been a focus of stories this week. Below is a list of ‘the best songs ever’, only two of which are featured in Anthems We Love 29 Iconic Artists on the Hit Songs That Shaped Our Lives. Their authors suggest that they are measuring something different. Both come with explanations for the choices. Both acknowledge that an audience might disagree. The other story is political and highlights the way in which individuals and movements commandeer songs to suit their purpose – which may be anathema to the writer of the song. Tom Petty has taken the dreadful election denier and Trump acolyte to task for using his, I Won’t Back Down for her refusal to acknowledge that she lost her fight to be Governor of Arizona – Katy Hobbs’ (Democrat) win was celebrated in last week’s blog.

After the Covid report – New addition – Victorian Election Prospects, Bob McMullan; The Best Songs Ever Written; political use of a song refused; Nancy Pelosi steps down; Heather Cox Richardson – Biden, Midterms, Russia.

Victorian Election Prospects – Bob McMullan

It is very difficult to get a clear picture of what is likely to happen in the Victorian election on Saturday.

A poll in the Age taken approximately four weeks ago suggested Labor retained a large lead. The accompanying article in the Conversation by Adrian Beaumont suggested that “the polls continue to indicate a landslide victory for Labor.” Beaumont however did draw attention to an apparent drop in Labor’s primary vote.

Despite this evidence, a widespread belief that the election will be closer than this recent polling predicts appears to be taking hold.

There appears to be three sources of this growing uncertainty, the possibility of a wave of Teal independents and Greens, the prospect of other independents winning traditional Labor seats in the outer suburbs and an impression of growing dissatisfaction with the long-serving Premier, Dan Andrews.

Will the Teal candidates do as well as their federal counterparts? I think not. There are some of the same factors at play but at least one significant difference. There is evidence of disillusionment with the major parties, and integrity issues are re-enforcing this trend. In addition, there is the heightened interest in Independent candidates now that voters have seen that such candidates can have a realistic chance of winning. Success breeds success.

However, there is one significant driver of votes for the Teals which is missing this time. Scott Morrison! Many Liberal voters found the idea of re-electing him too much to stomach.

On balance, such Independent candidates have a chance of winning some previously Liberal held seats, but I don’t expect their numbers to be comparable with the federal election.

It will be difficult for the Labor Party to resist the pressure from the Greens in inner-city electorates. When such voters are confident of a Labor victory there is a tendency to focus on the type of Labor government rather than focusing on being sure Labor has a majority. This is similar to the challenge the Hawke Labor government faced in 1984. It is very difficult to combat.

Long-term governments tend to face such problems in their otherwise safe seats. This appears to be driving a growing interest in Independent candidates in seats like Melton.

It is possible that a number of seats will come under pressure from such independent candidates, although it is hard to see very many of them actually winning. However, one or two seats lost like this can be the difference between majority and minority government.

The basis of the emerging view that Dan Andrews is a drag on the Labor vote is difficult to pin down. Most of the leaked polling data which appears to suggest this is partisan polling and must be considered suspect. However, almost every long-term leader faces dissatisfaction, particularly after the challenges of COVID during this term. And it does seem clear that Andrews is a polarizing figure.

A recent attempt to tie the possible result to the Kennett loss to Steve Bracks seems a little far-fetched. Dan Andrews may be comparable to Jeff Kennett, although that is open to debate, but Matthew Guy is no Steve Bracks!

The most recent polling at the time of writing is in the Age of Tuesday. This shows the ALP ahead 53/47 and tied on first preference votes. This is certainly a comedown from the extraordinary lead the ALP had in their last poll and may show a real swing away from Labor, but not apparently to the Liberals.

This does raise the possibility of a minority labor government. It would take an unusual series of coincidences in inner-city, outer-suburban and regional seats to push Labor into minority with the lead they currently appear to have. After all, 53/47 is the same result as Anastacia Palaszczuk achieved in her comprehensive 2020 win in Queensland.

It seems some people want to promote controversy to sell newspapers.

Nevertheless, the tightening in the polls, the rise of various types of Independents and the threat from the Greens will make for an interesting result on Saturday.

The most likely result is the return of a majority Labor government, with a minority labor government as the second most likely. It is extremely difficult to see a path to victory for the Liberals.

However, it is all in the voters’ hands now.

1. ‘Gimme Shelter’ — The Rolling Stones

2. ‘One’ — U2

3. ‘No Woman, No Cry’ — Bob Marley

4. ‘You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Feeling’ — The Righteous Brothers

5. ‘Sympathy For The Devil’ — The Rolling Stones

6. ‘I Walk The Line’ — Johnny Cash

7. ‘River Deep, Mountain High’ — Ike and Tina Turner

8. ‘Help!’ — The Beatles

9. ‘People Get Ready’ — The Impressions

10. ‘In My Life’ — The Beatles

11. ‘Layla’ — Derek And The Dominos

12. ‘(Sittin’ On) The Dock Of The Bay’ — Otis Redding

13. ‘Let It Be’ — The Beatles

14. ‘Baba O’Riley’ — The Who

15. ‘Be My Baby’ — The Ronettes

16. ‘Born To Run’ — Bruce Springsteen

17. ‘Behind Blue Eyes’ — The Who

18. ‘La Bamba’ — Ritchie Valens

19. ‘Hound Dog’ — Elvis Presley

20. ‘Rock Around The Clock’ — Bill Haley And The Comets

Songs on both lists: 32. ‘Light My Fire’ — The Doors; 40. ‘God Only Knows’ — The Beach Boys.

Rolling Stone

Kari Lake Hit With Cease and Desist Over Tom Petty’s ‘I Won’t Back Down’

Petty’s publisher called Lake’s use of the song “an insult to Tom’s memory, his lyrics and music, and the tens of millions of fans who cherish his legacy”

BY ETHAN MILLMAN November 18, 2022

WIXEN MUSIC PUBLISHING, the music publisher for Tom Petty, hit Kari Lake with a Cease and Desist letter on Friday over her use of Petty’s hit song “I Won’t Back Down.” The letter, obtained by Rolling Stone, comes after the Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate who lost to Katie Hobbs this week faced backlash from Petty’s estate for using the track.

As Lake’s use of Petty’s song suggests, she is currently refusing to concede the governor’s race, instead insinuating that voter fraud cost her the election. Earlier this week, she posted a video featuring the song on her social media accounts, but by Friday, it appeared to be removed on all platforms. Tom Petty’s estate condemned Lake’s use of the song on Thursday, noting it was exploring legal actions to get her to stop.

By Friday evening, Wixen sent the letter to Lake’s campaign, noting that the use of the song “conveys the false implication that the claimants endorse” her, a notion Wixen called “revolting.”

“Tom sang ‘I Won’t Back Down’ at the America: A Tribute to Heroes benefit for concert for the victims of 9/11 attack. Not backing down to hatred violence and an attack on our democracy,” Wixen wrote. “The opposite of what you stand for. Using this song to promote your warped values is not only illegal as outlined above, but an insult to Tom’s memory, his lyrics and music, and the tens of millions of fans who cherish his legacy.”

Meanwhile in America CNN- November 18, 2022  Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby Rose

Passing the torch

November 18, 2022  Stephen Collinson, Caitlin Hu and Shelby

Nancy Pelosi has done something that is fundamental to a democracy’s capacity to sustain and regenerate itself — she gave up power.

After two decades at the top of her party, the House speaker announced Thursday that she will not stand for leader when Democrats head into the minority next year, saying it is time for a new generation to take over. Managing a departure can be as hard for politicians as the long climb to the pinnacle of power. Letting go when people think you should stay — neither President Joe Biden nor Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer wanted Pelosi to quit — requires a special kind of self-awareness. The veteran Democrat probably could have won the leadership yet again. Given Republican’s slim majority in the House, there’s even a chance she could have spent the next two years plotting a 2024 election win and a third spell as speaker.

Pelosi is 82, and still dealing with the brutal assault on her husband Paul last month. And while she’s an icon in her party, there have long been grumblings that the aged Democratic House leadership (her lieutenants Reps. Steny Hoyer and James Clyburn are also octogenarians) is holding back younger leaders and harming the party’s efforts to engage younger voters.
Pelosi’s graceful exit is in the finest tradition of politicians who step away, epitomized in the United States by the first President George Washington’s decision not to seek a third term. It also contrasts sharply with the behavior of Pelosi’s most bitter foe, former President Donald Trump, who incited an insurrection in 2021 because he did not want to leave.

It will also stir a debate about whether the United States is, or should be, at the end of a political era and the current crop of politicians need to move on. The idea of torches being passed to a new generation has been a powerful motivating force in US politics and helped animate the rise of presidents like John Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Yet lately, something unusual has happened — responsibility has been passed back to an older generation.

In the Senate — where lawmakers often go on until they drop and power is rooted in seniority that takes decades to build, youth is a relative concept. Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell, 80, has just defeated an effort by a younger senator, Rick Scott, 69, to topple him. The Senate Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is meanwhile a mere slip of a lad at 71. 

On Sunday, America will experience an unprecedented moment — a sitting president turning 80 years old. But Biden is giving every sign that he will run for reelection in two years, especially if his opponent is Trump, 76. If Republican primary voters opt for someone else however — like 44-year-old Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the tableau of a president taking on a Republican rival who is effectively half his age could be a politically challenging one for Biden.

Heather Cox Richardson

Mid Terms, Russia, Biden

November 14, 2022 (Monday)

The contours of last Tuesday’s midterm election continue to come into focus. They are good, indeed, for the Democrats and Democratic president Joe Biden. Foremost is that the Democrats have not lost a Senate seat and could well pick one up after the December 6 runoff election between Georgia senator Rafael Warnock and Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Those results are strong. According to Axios senior political correspondent Josh Kraushaar, only in 1934, under Democratic president Franklin D. Roosevelt; 1962, under Democratic president John F. Kennedy; and 2002, under Republican president George W. Bush and just after the 9/11 attacks, has a president’s party not lost a Senate seat in the midterms and lost fewer than 10 House seats. Since World War II, midterms have cost the party in power an average of 28 seats.

Democrats also did well in state governments, picking up some state governorships—including Arizona’s tonight, as Democrat Katie Hobbs is projected to have beaten Trump-backed Republican election denier Kari Lake—and taking control in some legislative chambers, although again, it’s not clear yet how many. They also denied the Republicans veto-proof supermajorities in others.

Also crucial was the defeat of election deniers, who backed Trump’s false allegations that he won the 2020 election, in six key elections where those folks would have been in charge of certifying ballots for their states in the future. In Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, voters rejected election deniers running to become secretary of state. Indiana voters elected as secretary of state election denier Diego Morales, who has been mired in scandal, securing Republican control of the state.

In Nevada, Republican Jim Marchant was personally recruited by Trump’s people to run for secretary of state, and they asked him to put together a group of those who thought like him across the nation. At a Trump rally in October, Marchant promised voters that “[w]hen my coalition of secretary of state candidates around the country get elected, we’re going to fix the whole country, and President Trump is going to be president again in 2024.”

Instead, voters chose Democrat Cisco Aguilar, who told Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times: “People are tired of chaos…. They want stability; they want normalcy; they want somebody who’s going to be an adult and make decisions that are fair, transparent, and in the best interest of all Nevadans.”

While many of us have been focusing on events here at home, the outcome of the election had huge implications for foreign policy. As today’s column by conservative columnist Max Boot of the Washington Post notes, “Republicans lost the election—and so did [Russian president Vladimir] Putin, MBS [Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman], and [former/incoming Israeli prime minister Benjamin] Netanyahu.”

Autocrats and hard-right leaders liked Trump at the head of the U.S. government, for he was far more inclined to operate transactionally on the basis of financial benefits, while Biden and his secretary of state, Antony Blinken, have advanced a foreign policy based on democratic values. Leaders like MBS have ignored Biden or denigrated him, expecting that a reelected Trump in 2024 would revert to the system they preferred. Now those calculations have hit a snag.

Indeed, Russia put its bots and trolls back to work before the election to weaken Biden in the hope that a Republican Congress would cut aid to Ukraine, as Republican leaders had suggested they would. The Russian army is in terrible trouble in Ukraine, and its best bet for a lift is for the international coalition the U.S. anchors to fall apart. Russian propagandists suggested that Putin suppressed news that the Russians were withdrawing from the Ukrainian city of Kherson until after the election to avoid giving the Democrats a boost in the polls.

Today, Secretary of State Blinken announced more sanctions against Russian companies and individuals, in Russia and abroad, “to disrupt Russia’s military supply chains and impose high costs on President Putin’s enablers.” Director of the CIA William Burns met recently in Turkey with his Russian counterpart to convey “a message on the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons” and “the risks of escalation,” but said the U.S. is firmly behind “our fundamental principle: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.”

Also today, the General Assembly of the United Nations approved a resolution saying that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violated international law and that Russia must pay war reparations. In Germany and Poland, the governments separately announced they were taking over natural gas companies that had been tied to Russia’s huge energy company, Gazprom, in order to guarantee energy supplies to their people.

On Friday, November 11, Biden spoke at the United Nations climate change conference in Egypt. He was the only leader of a major polluting nation to go to the meeting, and there he stressed U.S. leadership, pointing to the Inflation Reduction Act’s $370 billion investment in the U.S. shift to clean energy and other climate-positive changes. Also on Friday, his administration announced it would use the U.S. government’s buying power to push suppliers toward climate-positive positions. Protesters called attention to how little the U.S. has done for poorer countries harmed by climate change that has been caused by richer countries.

From Egypt, the president traveled to Cambodia for a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), including Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. In the past year, the U.S. has announced more than $250 million in new initiatives with ASEAN, investing especially in infrastructure in an apparent attempt to disrupt China’s dominance of the region by supporting counterweights in the region. The U.S. is now elevating the cooperation with ASEAN to a comprehensive strategic partnership to support a rules-based Indo-Pacific region, maritime cooperation, economic and technological cooperation, and sustainable development. “ASEAN is the heart of my administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy, and we continue to strengthen our commitment to work in lockstep with an empowered, unified ASEAN,” Biden said.

While in Cambodia, Biden also met with Japanese prime minister Kishida Fumio and reinforced the U.S. “ironclad commitment to the defense of Japan” after North Korea’s recent ballistic missile tests. Biden and Kishida reiterated their plan to strengthen and modernize the relationship between the U.S. and Japan to “address threats to the free and open Indo-Pacific.”

From there, Biden traveled to Bali, Indonesia, for a meeting of the G20, a forum of 19 countries and the European Union comprising countries that make up most of the nation’s largest economies.

Today the president met for more than three hours with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The main message from the meeting was that the two countries are communicating, and while each is standing firm on its national sovereignty, each sees room to cooperate on major global issues.

Biden made it a point to say that U.S. policies toward Taiwan have not changed—a concern that created ripples of uncertainty when House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island nation last summer—and both he and Xi agreed that Russia should not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. In a sign that relations are easing, Biden said that Blinken and other U.S. officials will visit China to begin working on issues of mutual interest..

Meanwhile, authorities in Iran are cracking down on the protesters there, with news of torture and now of a death sentence for one of the 15,000 protesters who have been arrested. Today, national security advisor Jake Sullivan condemned the human rights abuses inflicted on its citizens by the Iranian government and called for “accountability…through sanctions and other means.”

In Bali today, the president reminded reporters: “On my first trip overseas last year, I said that America was back—back at home, back at the table, and back to leading the world. In the year and a half that’s followed, we’ve shown exactly what that means. America is keeping its commitments. America is investing in our strength at home. America is working alongside our allies and partners to deliver real, meaningful progress around the world. And at this critical moment, no nation is better positioned to help build the future we want than the United States of America.”

Heather Cox Richardson is a political historian who uses facts and history to put the news in context.