Week beginning 30 December, 2020

American Elections

Twenty three days before Joe Biden and Kamala Harris become President and Vice President. Important dates before this momentous occasion are the Georgia runoffs on January 5th and on January 6th the House and Senate meet to count the Electoral College Votes. It seems a long time ago that the electoral college votes crept towards 270 for Joe Biden, and his win was accomplished with an excess – 306 Electoral College Votes (Thank you Bob McMullan for your coverage pre-election day.) .

Dachshunds – comical relief

But all that pales into insignificance in comparison with Christmas gifts such as dachshund coasters and tea towels.

Thank you, Carol and Ingrid.

Working in the Trump Justice Department , Erica Newland

A devastating and powerful story from a former lawyer at the Justice Department, published in NYTimes. com.

Opinion, I’m Haunted By What I Did as a Lawyer In The Trump Justice Department.

Copied from post by Clarke Horn I Watch Rachel Maddow.

Opinion”•”No matter our intentions, lawyers like me were complicit.”•”We owe the country our honesty about what we saw — and should do in the future.”KEY POINT(s)—SOURCE:[text]nytimes.com

OPINION: “By Erica Newland”“Ms. Newland worked in the Office of Legal Counsel at the Justice Department from 2016-18.”“Dec. 20, 2020”SOURCE:[text link(s)/text]nytimes.com IMAGE:” Credit…Doug Mills/The New York Times”

“I was an attorney at the Justice Department when Donald Trump was elected president. I worked in the Office of Legal Counsel, which is where presidents turn for permission slips that say their executive orders and other contemplated actions are lawful. I joined the department during the Obama administration, as a career attorney whose work was supposed to be independent of politics.”

“I never harbored delusions about a Trump presidency. Mr. Trump readily volunteered that his agenda was to disassemble our democracy, but I made a choice to stay at the Justice Department — home to some of the country’s finest lawyers — for as long as I could bear it. I believed that I could better serve our country by pushing back from within than by keeping my hands clean. But I have come to reconsider that decision.” “My job was to tailor the administration’s executive actions to make them lawful — in narrowing them, I could also make them less destructive. I remained committed to trying to uphold my oath even as the president refused to uphold his.” “But there was a trade-off: We attorneys diminished the immediate harmful impacts of President Trump’s executive orders — but we also made them more palatable to the courts.” “This burst into public view early in the Trump administration in the litigation over the executive order banning travel from several predominantly Muslim countries, which my office approved. The first Muslim ban was rushed out the door. It was sweeping and sloppy; the courts quickly put a halt to it. The successive discriminatory bans benefited from more time and attention from the department’s lawyers, who narrowed them but also made them more technocratic and therefore harder for the courts to block.”•{https://www.newyorker.com/…/why-sally-yates-stood-up-to…}•{https://protectdemocracy.org/…/foia-responses-omb-olc…/}“After the Supreme Court’s June 2018 decision upholding the third Muslim ban, I reviewed my own portfolio — which included matters targeting noncitizens, dismantling the Civil Service and camouflaging the president’s corruption — overcome with fear that I was doing more harm than good.

By Thanksgiving of that year, I had left my job.”{https://www.nytimes.com/…/supreme-court-trump-travel…}“Still, I felt I was abandoning the ship. I continued to believe that a critical mass of responsible attorneys staying in government might provide a last line of defense against the administration’s worst instincts. Even after I left, I advised others that they could do good by staying. News reports about meaningful pushback by Justice Department attorneys seemed to confirm this thinking.”•{https://www.courant.com/…/hc-news-john-durham-dannehy…}•{https://www.washingtonpost.com/…/223eb074-2b8f-11eb…}•{https://www.nytimes.com/…/justice-department-voter…}“I was wrong.” “Watching the Trump campaign’s attacks on the election results, I now see what might have happened if, rather than nip and tuck the Trump agenda, responsible Justice Department attorneys had collectively — ethically, lawfully — refused to participate in President Trump’s systematic attacks on our democracy from the beginning. The attacks would have failed.” “Unlike the Trump Justice Department, the Trump campaign has relied on second-rate lawyers who lack the skills to maintain the president’s charade. After a recent oral argument from Rudy Giuliani, Judge Matthew Brann (a Republican) wrote that the campaign had offered “strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence.” Even judges appointed by Mr. Trump have refused to throw their lots in with lawyers who can’t master the basic mechanics of lawyering.”•{https://www.nytimes.com/…/jones-day-trump-election…}•{https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_-Rvu8jTjk…} •{https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/…/pat-toomey-statement…/}•{https://www.courtlistener.com/…/gov.uscourts.pamd…}•https://apnews.com/…/joe-biden-donald-trump-lawsuits…•{https://www.politico.com/…/sidney-powell-trump-election…}

“After four years of bulldozing through one institution after another on the backs of skilled lawyers, the Trump agenda hit a brick wall.”“The story of the Trump campaign’s attack on our elections could have been the story of the Trump administration’s four-year-long attack on our institutions. If, early on, the Justice Department lawyers charged with selling the administration’s lies had emptied the ranks — withholding our talents and reputations and demanding the same of our professional peers — the work of defending President Trump’s policies would have been left to the types of attorneys now representing his campaign. Lawyers like Mr. Giuliani would have had to defend the Muslim ban in court.” “Had that happened, judges would have likely dismantled the Trump façade from the beginning, stopping the momentum of his ugliest and most destructive efforts and bringing much-needed accountability early in his presidency.”

“Before the 2020 election, I was haunted by what I didn’t do. By all the ways I failed to push back enough. Now, after the 2020 election, I’m haunted by what I did. The trade-off wasn’t worth it.” “In giving voice to those trying to destroy the rule of law and dignifying their efforts with our talents and even our basic competence, we enabled that destruction. Were we doing enough good elsewhere to counterbalance the harm we facilitated, the way a public health official might accommodate the president on the margins to push forward on vaccine development? No.” “No matter our intentions, we were complicit. We collectively perpetuated an anti-democratic leader by conforming to his assault on reality. We may have been victims of the system, but we were also its instruments. No matter how much any one of us pushed back from within, we did so as members of a professional class of government lawyers who enabled an assault on our democracy — an assault that nearly ended it.”{https://hac.bard.edu/…/the-power-of-the-powerless…}

“We owe the country our honesty about that and about what we saw. We owe apologies. I offer mine here.” “And we owe our best efforts to restore our democracy and to share what we learned to help mobilize and enact reforms — to remind future government lawyers that when asked to undermine our democracy, the right course is to refuse and hold your peers to the same standard.”“To lead by example, and do everything in our power to ensure this never happens again. If we don’t, it will.”

“Erica Newland, counsel at Protect Democracy, worked in the Office of Legal Counsel at the Justice Department from 2016-18.”“The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.”“Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.”NYTIMES.COMOpinion | I’m Haunted by What I Did as a Lawyer in the Trump Justice DepartmentNo matter our intentions, lawyers like me were complicit. We owe the country our honesty about what we saw — and should do in the future.

After that, the dachshunds are opting out

Week beginning 23rd December, 2020

Reforms discussed on Chris Hayes All In on MSNBC

Chris Hayes’ program on MSNBC discussing reforming the American electoral system and additional parts of the system so as to avoid the horror of the past four years is informative. A major part of the discussion centred on electoral reform – mainly the Electoral College. Some commentators want to dispense with the system altogether – but is that a real possibilty? Would Republicans support change when it favours them? They have won Presidential Elections with its state by state votes, which in many cases have not reflected the majority vote which has been won by the Democrats.

On the other hand, 2000 was the first for 112 years in which the winning candidate lost the popular vote. Similarly in 2016.

The National Popular Vote Compact was one option canvassed. It raises the possibility that the Electoral college remain, but the way in which state representatives vote in the College is changed. A proposal that has been supported by a vote (over 52%) in Colorado (Proposition 113 on the ballot for President 2020) is that delegates should cast their votes in favour of the person who receives the popular vote.

Would it be easier to focus on reforming gerrymanders that give populous states only the same representation in the Electoral College as less populous states? In Australia this was done – after a great deal of hard work and support from both parties. The changes have not ensured Labor wins, so perhaps the Republicans might be able to encourage democracy in their states without too much fear? A little bit of democracy after the past four years might not go astray in encouraging Americans to believe in their system again. Of course, some of that disbelief is confected so the impact of attempts to restore belief in democracy will be limited however effective campaigns appear.

Another source of debate was the Supreme Court, and speculation that the numbers should be increased – but that terms, instead of being for life should be fixed. The suggestion was 18 years, based on the Senate electoral cycle. The perfidy of the Republican dominated Senate in deferring an Obama nominee in his last year in office, but endorsing Trump’s two last nominees, one with obviously unseemly haste, was argued as a reason for Democrat action on this front.

And then, the most dramatic proposal of all – a Biden Blitz on Day 1. Not in his character? The impressive range of talented and experienced people he has mustered to serve his administration means that a blitz is unnecessary? Mitch McConnell proves less recalcitrant than expected? Democrats win the two Senate seat in the Georgia runoffs?

Let’s wait and see. But, I suggest that Biden and Harris are equal to the challenges and what they decide will be worthy of support.

The ReidOut

Joy Reid Interviews with Rachel Maddow and Joe Scarborough were also interesting Christmas Day watching – Love Actually didn’t seem to be on – with Maddow talking about her book and podcast, Bagman and Scarborough, his book about Harry Truman. Bagman is about Spiro Agnew – some familiar behaviour here.

Christmas in Australia with Covid 19

Christmas in Australia has the Sydney Northern beaches outbreak of Covid 19 looming over festivities, with borders being closed to people from there and the Greater Sydney area. Western Australia, in particular, has taken safety measures against their impressive record at stemming outbreaks by closing the border to New South Wales entirely.

Does one year of a quiet Christmas really matter? Phone calls, zoom and Skype, keeping in touch throughout the year are all options. One wonderful young woman remarked to us as she served us our coffee last week ‘ I love my family, but I don’t want to isolate for two weeks to have Christmas with them this year’. Would that everyone could be as smart and thoughtful for others.

Television comments this week refer to Belgravia and The Queen’s Gambit.

There are no new book reviews, but at the moment I am reading Belgravia by Julian Fellowes; The Medusa Image by Gordon D’ Venables; Cruel Summer by Bernard Jan; and Why Didn’t They Ask Evans? by Agatha Christie. Belgravia is the novel on which the television series is based, and is worth reading, as indeed is the television show worth seeing. The Medusa Image is a first novel, well written, a thriller set in Thailand and Australia. Cruel Summer is an ebook which I am reviewing for Amazon, a vivid story of teenagers, with the intricacies of skateboarding a feature which takes me into new realms. Agatha Christie’s novel is one of her most class based works, and will be used in my discussions of Racism, Sexism and Classism in Agatha Christie.

Week beginning 16th December

Book reviews An Indulgence of Agatha Christies continues with the way in which women were depicted in the 1930s novels. This is a section of Part 2 Racism, Sexism and Classism in Agatha Christie. Earlier material moved to Book Reviews: Archives.

Television Comments Comments on episode of The Crown. Earlier material moved to Television Comments: Archives

Senate Runoffs

On the first day of voting for the Senate Runoffs in Georgia more people turned out to vote than they did on the first day of the Presidential elections. Joe Biden’s speech to Georgia asked if the pundits that say more people turn out to vote on the first day for the presidency could be proven wrong. They have been. There have been two great speeches from Biden since the Electoral College cast its votes for him, and Kamala Harris for President and Vice President. The first was just after that vote – which was publicised because of the unique manner in which Biden’s win of 360 votes in the Electoral College has been treated by Republicans and conservative media. For an Australian who has become enthralled by these elections, it was an opportunity to see on television the way in which American Electoral College votes are conducted.

Leaving the Republican Party to support Democracy

Steve Schmidt is a regular interviewee on The Last Word, a former Republican, then Independent, now has become a Democrat. The interview with him, by Lawrence O’Donnell was instructive about Schmidt’s reasons for his changes. Today he said ‘ There’s now one pro-democracy political party’ – and he is registering for it. Thank you Steve Schmidt.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nancy Pelosi

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez rejects left-wing calls to force Pelosi to hold a Medicare for All vote in exchange for her vote for the Speaker. (Business Insider, Eliza Relman). Thank you, AOC.

Death of John le Carre I was reminded of reading A Delicate Truth (2013) which was so engrossing that my friend remained reading it to the end as I was preparing to leave England for Australia. Friendship forgotten, she read it to the end – then gave it to me for the flight. Another few months, and she was with me in Australia. For some reason I had left reading it until the last moment. Engrossed, I did not join the frenzy of preparation for her departure – I had to finish it. The only saving grace is that we met fairly frequently – and, the book was worth those few moments of neglect of an important friendship.

Week beginning 9 December, 2020

Books: Reviews – the following material has been moved to Book Reviews: Archives, Agatha Christie’s The ABC Murders and 4.50 From Paddington; and Part 1 Racism, Classism and Sexism in Agatha Christies.

Television: Comments – material moved to Television Comments: Archives is American Presidential Election; and Brothers and Sisters. New material: A Country Podcast; The Crown; The Queen’s Gambit.

I visited The Australian National Gallery where excellent Covid 19 arrangements are in place. Visitors are greeted at the entrance and directed to registration and hand sanitiser is in two places at the entry. Registration is simple, and aimed at tracking visitors, the number and the time they enter the gallery. Membership cards suffice but are not essential.

The Gallery has some exciting exhibitions at the moment.

MIKALA DWYER

Born Warrang/Sydney 1959

Square cloud compound 2010 Warrang/Sydney wood, paint, cotton, polyester, nylon, plastic, glass, ceramic, stone, acrylic, leather, copper, electrical components.

Collection: Museum of Contemporary Art Australia, Sydney. Purchased with funds provided by the MCA Foundation, 2015.

Square cloud compound draws on the history of Cockatoo Island, a site which since colonialisation has operated as a prison and an institutional home for young women. Dwyer grew up visiting the site and has a ‘long engagement’ with its ‘ghosts’. The vibrant patchwork of materials in this work- including lamps, stockings, fabric and beer bottles- forms an oversize cubbyhouse that evokes a childlike sense of wonder and discovery, while its floating walls also offer a means of escape.

And this is a particularly amusing painting in the Indigenous Art section.

Georgia Runoff Senate Elections – Selena Montgomery and Stacey Abrams

Stacey Abrams is a force in Georgia Democrat politics, and an essential part of the campaign to win the two Senate seats in the run off elections to be held on January 5 2021. Part of her campaign has been fundraising, and here, her other persona has been important. She helped raise $400,000 at a romance writers fundraiser for the Senate Run Off Elections. As well as being the epitome of a political activist she is also the romance writer, Selena Montgomery.

‘Abrams wrote her first novel during her third year at Yale Law School, inspired after reading her ex-boyfriend’s PhD dissertation in chemical physics. She had wanted to write a spy novel: “For me, for other young black girls, I wanted to write books that showed them to be as adventurous and attractive as any white woman,” she wrote in her memoir Minority Leader. But after being told repeatedly by editors that women don’t read spy novels, and that men don’t read spy novels by women, she made her spies fall in love. Rules of Engagement, her debut, was published in 2001, and sees temperatures flare as covert operative Raleigh partners with the handsome Adam Grayson to infiltrate a terrorist group that has stolen deadly environmental technology’ (The Guardian, Australian Edition, Books Blog, 10 November 2020).

About one of Selena Montgomery’s novels, Deception:

Always on the run . . .
Playing the odds has always been Fin Borders’ forte. She knows when to get out to keep from losing everything. But an innocent woman has been accused of murder, and to help, Fin will have to go back to the small southern town of her birth. It’s a place she’s been running from her entire life, a place of violence, where she got by with nothing more than her wits. Returning to Hallden, Georgia, means facing the ghosts of a brutal crime that Fin will never forget—and risking her own life.
But Fin isn’t the only one in Hallden hunting for a killer. FBI Special Agent Caleb Matthews is deep undercover, hiding his true identity and his own desperate history. Working alone is far too dangerous, so he and Fin must learn to trust each other. But as they grow closer, they are unprepared for the passion that takes hold . . . and the shocking deception that could destroy everything they hold dear.

Another politician of note, British Labour Party Helen Liddell, Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke, is also a writer of fiction, publishing a ‘bodice ripper’ before she entered parliament in 1994. Such eminent women having worked on popular texts suggests that my work on popular writers, and women’s roles in soap opera might also resonate with thinking women. A topic for a blog in the future.

But, back to the Senate runoffs- Stacey Abrams has been campaigning through virtual meetings to ‘get out the vote’. A commentator on MNSBC was succinct – if people want to win the Senate seats, do what Stacey Abrams says’.

I hope that they do.

Brilliant and Bold! a Zoom meeting hosted by Jocelynne Scutt

Sunday, December 13 2020 11am UK time (10.00pm Australian time)

Leaping the Hurdles! Overturning the Obstacles! Four brilliant & bold women tell us how it’s done, how they face forward into the day, despite the odds, confronting the patriarch – and maintaining their enthusiasm despite the knocks! Greece, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom … and You! 

I have attended all of these meetings, and thoroughly enjoyed them. The speakers are interesting, questions can be asked, and general participation is encouraged.

Safe Harbour Day has arrived in America – by late Monday 8th (American time) every state but Hawaii has certified its results, securing Joe Biden more than the 270 electoral college votes he needs to become president.

The Supreme Court threw out the only pro -Trump case to get to that court – in a one sentence decision.

Week beginning 2 December

Book reviews: The early material related to An indulgence of Agatha Christies has been moved to Book Reviews: Archives. This includes the introduction, reviews of two books about Christie’s life and work: Laura Thompson, Agatha Christie: A Mysterious Life and John Curran, Agatha Christie’s Complete Secret Notebooks: Stories and Secrets of Murder in the Making and reviews of The Agatha Christie Collection and the international novels in the train series – .Murder On The Orient Express and The Blue Train Mystery.

Television Comments: American Presidential Election has been moved to Television Comments: Archives. This week, I add further comments on An Australian Podcast , including an interview with Judy Calquhoun, one of A Country Practice’s script writers, notably of many of the deaths that occur in the program.

A Country Podcast has posted on their Facebook page that they would like to make shows in Australian cities – but seem to have a preference for Noosa or Margaret River so they can enjoy a holiday as well as produce a program. I, too, am contemplating a holiday to Noosa – and what fun to be around the show.

Wombat at Narawntapu national park in TasmaniaRelated images:

Part 1 of Racism, Sexism and Classism in Agatha Christie’s Novels is now complete, finishing with reference to the 1920s novels.

I am currently reading Christie’s Come, Tell Me How You Live, her story of life on Archeological sites. This will be reviewed when completed.

A few days later – oh joy, I have finished and a review appears on the Book Reviews page.

President Elect, Joe Biden, has nominated an impressive all women communications team. The historical line up represented the diversity of America.

Bing Images

Will the likes of a CJ (The West Wing) be at the podium giving press briefings? Lawrence O’Donnell , The Last Word, recently interviewed Richard Schiff, with comments from other The West Wing favourites – the interview introduced by the music from The West Wing. This was great to listen to – I must re-watch the whole show.

Three Hours by Rosamund Lupton is the fourth of her books that I have read. I was impressed by the other three. However, Three Hours is such a feat of exquisite plotting, dramatic tension, political and literary force and a tribute to love, resilience, and young people of independence, courage and ideas, together with the school system and teachers who encouraged them to be thus that it stands out against even Lupton’s earlier work.

Bing Image

I was reading until 4.00 am (what a pity I am not in America where I could use this as the reason for being awake for Way Too Early with Kasie Hunt) because the tension was too much to bear without some sort of resolution. That achieved, in at least a minor way, I slept, then finished this morning. A review is in the making, but I have far from finished with Christie.

Week beginning 25 November

Booker Prize goes to Scottish author Douglas Stuart for debut novel Shuggie Bain. Book reviews@ By arts editor Dee Jefferson.

Book Reviews: Introduction to reviews of Agatha Christie novels which reflect racist, sexist and classist ideas. This introduction is based on my article Ethical Fiction: Essential? Desirable? Irrelevant? Review of Agatha Christie’s The Mysterious Affair at Styles.

Television Comment:   An Australian Podcast, November 13, 2020 and Brothers and Sisters, 2006 – 2011.

American Presidential Election
Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

The Presidential Election remains in the headlines and commentary on MNSBC and CNN as President Trump refuses to acknowledge his loss, and ensure the usual seamless transition to the new administration. Joe Scarborough, Morning Joe, refers to a coup, and reflects upon his time as a Republican – very circumstances and behaviour, under very different leadership. Edward Luce, Financial Times, expresses concerns about new appointments that bode ill for the incoming administration. Claire McCaskill, former Senator, believes that the reluctance to take Trump to account is concern about winning the two Senate seats in Georgia. MNSBC, 23/11/2020 (Australia). Various attempts to overturn the election results through court cases are being rejected, sometimes with scathing opinions from Judges. . Trump plays golf at the G20 instead of attending a session on Coronavirus.

Photo by Daria Shevtsova on Pexels.com

and having hope that America can survive the Trump era and prosper under the Biden-Harris leadership.

I just arrived home after coffee, knowing that Emily Murphy had, at long last, done her duty. When I turned on the television (an addiction I’ve given into over the past weeks sine the election of Joe Biden as Presidential Elect) what joy to find

Lawrence O’Donnell The Last Word

16 Days – and Emily Murphy signs : CSA Begins Presidential Transition Process MSNBC (10.12 PM CT)

Lawrence O’Donnell’s commentary on the days between when Joe Biden became the apparent winner of the 2020 Presidential Election has been amazing – strong, informative, forthright – and correct. Today (2,00 pm Australian time) he and his panel, Jennifer Palamerii and John Heilemann have given a spirited account of the events, the background, and the possible activity that has taken place in the administration in the past 16 days.

Today the programs were introducing Americans (and others) to what has been described as the most professional team assembled to the various offices which are now to be filled by the Biden- Harris team.

Covid protection on the walk to my coffee in Canberra

I am looking forward to reading Jocelynne Scutt’s newest publication

Posts week beginning 18 November 2020

Book reviews: The Agatha Christie indulgence continues, with another train related mystery, The ABC Murders. I began these as I was indulging a long held aspiration to travel on The Ghan from Adelaide to Alice Springs, and was thinking about the romance and joy associated with such travel. Of course, Christie does not dwell on these, but amongst the murders there is some romance and joy. On the Ghan there was only the latter.

Television comments: Some short reflections on the American coverage of the Presidential Election. Comments on A Country Podcast will resume after I have indulged myself on CNN and MNSBC commentary.

American Presidential Election

As Bob McMullan predicted, Joe Biden won the Presidential Election. The result in Pennsylvania made Biden the President Elect, and Arizona and Georgia gave McMullan his predicted 306 Electoral College votes for Biden. Although at this time President Trump has not conceded, his innumerable attempts to find another outcome through the courts have been unsuccessful – many being rejected immediately.

The Ghan, Alice Springs and Yalara

Waiting for the 306 electoral votes was not hard, after celebrating Biden’s win at the station before leaving on The Ghan for Alice Springs.

Before entering the station lounge measures against Covid 19 were taken, including temperature checks and Border Control forms. These had already been completed – not an onerous task! But how different from usual. It reminded me of the border controls in Europe years ago, when our passports were checked at each country’s border. Preparation for our European travels post Brexit and post Covid?

The lounge, rarely empty, but reminiscent of Michael Portillo’s trip on The Ghan televised in Great Australian Train Journeys. Plenty of champagne (and other drinks, of course), nibbles and discussion.

A good night’s sleep and an early rise to see the sunrise at Marla. Vegemite scolls and bacon and egg rolls are served with orange juice, tea and coffee.

The landscape seen from the train and the train moving though the landscape. The front of the train is around the curve.

Before alighting in Alice Springs a health pack was distributed. Another Border Pass was viewed by efficient and pleasant staff. One of the only two camels I saw was this statue at the station. Note, The Ghan is so long one does not alight at what normally passes for a station. Steps were used for us to get to the ground.

Alice Springs – impressive Indigenous Art Galleries, taxis everywhere, hot (but not oppressive), wide streets, makes me want to reread A Town Like Alice by Nevile Shute. A friend told me about the emus I would see on the way to Alice – not an emu to be seen, evidently I’ll have to go to Broken Hill to see them out of captivity. No camels either! To be fair , I could have gone to the Camel Farm, but I wanted to see them roaming free.

Fan Arcade where we enjoyed cold drinks, bemoaned the absence of Leah when there was a dog bowl for her, and appreciated the fans and sails above.

Peacock at our Alice Springs Hotel – gorgeous show off, posturing when anyone approached. No , we did not use the doors behind him to get to the pool!

After the Alice Springs sojourn we began our Uluru experience by coach, with stops at an eccentric road café, and a more conventional one. A camel and emu reside in a fenced, but large enclosure. But I’d rather not have seen them because they were free in the bush.

The driver was informative and chatty. What stood out amongst the chat was the commitment to Indigenous culture and their rights amongst the demands of tourists. Covid care was impressive. We were also warned to buy fly nets, which we did.

This early morning trip began a feature of the trip – arising at 4.00, and once at 3.30. So, lots of slumbering on the coaches that took us to the various sites.

Kata Tjuta Sunset

The first visit after our arrival and settling into the lovely Sails in the Desert was Kata Tjuta for the sunset. Kata Tjuta is also known as the Olgas, but consistently the guides use the Indigenous names, while linking them to the European names for clarity.

Uluru Sunrise and Sunset

Instead of walking up the rock, tourists now enjoy the walk around the base of the rock – a much more comfortable exercise as well as meeting the traditional owners’ requirements. One person confronted the guide about the new rules, and was deflected so politely but so firmly that he was left with no misunderstanding about the way in which the guides consider the rights of the indigenous owners.

Some sites around the base were sacred so photos were not allowed.

Rock art was able to be photographed, including that in a family cave, and a ‘kitchen’ cave.

Breakfasts and coffees were enjoyed at the Indigenous hospitality training café. This included a reminder of a Parisian meringue! On the walk to the café I saw my first live Sturt Pea.

Field of Light

Field of Light is an installation between Uluru and Kata Tjuta. Bruce Munro is the artist. Unfortunately photos may be taken, but not reproduced on line. Although it is clear that this blog could in no way be considered commercial, reading the information suggests that no photos can be replicated. This is such a pity as the installation was stunning and it would be lovely if it could be seen by more than the visitors to Uluru. I’m going to ask the artist if I am understanding the information as I’d love to add the photos to this blog.

Update on Bruce Munro – I received a lovely response to my request to use the photos. So here they are, and please read and adhere to the copyright notification below.

Copyright (c)2016 Bruce Munro. All rights reserved.

I was pleased to see this installation at sunrise, as we were able to walk through the art at the height of its beauty. The photo, bottom LHS, shows the installation as the light from the sun takes over. Other tours take place at night so that the lights gradually appear as the sun sets – more comfortable than arising early, and beautiful in its own way, I expect.

Further, Bruce Munro is holding an exhibition in Melbourne at the Heidi Gallery next year from June until October. I shall make that part of my Melbourne trip.

Posts week beginning November 2

This week part of the blog will begin a day early, so as to include Bob McMullan’s prediction for the 2020 American Presidential Election before the vote is counted in America. After the prediction post I have also added some of the material from his weekly reports on the election.

Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!
Conversations with fabulously fascinating, always interesting, enviably engaging women … Sunday 15 November join the mayor of Broken Hill, New South Wales, a Spanish student returned to study at Anglia Ruskin, Cambridge, an Italian environmental fashion designer, and an Israeli former librarian who spends time in Italy, Israel & Australia … Plus women from all over the world – Join our global conversation … ‘Courage Speaks to Courage Everywhere … Women’s Voices Must be Heard …’

Book Reviews for the next few weeks will concentrate on Agatha Christie’s work, and related nonfiction sources. My Agatha Christie Indulgence for a couple of weeks, although possibly dated (I say possibly because her novels continue to be published) is based on the pleasure I have had in revisiting the novels through membership of the Goodreads site. I joined the group having enjoyed a trip to Greenway, Agatha Christie’s home in Devon. Years before I had been taken by friends to her home in Wallingford and grave in Cholsey. The indulgence will start with two nonfiction books, Laura Thompson – Agatha Christie: A Mysterious Life and Agatha Christie’s Complete Secret Notebooks: Stories and Secrets of Murder in the Making John Curran. Before I begin my own train travel (travel after the borders of South Australia opened, what joy!) two of Christies train novels will be added on Friday 6th November. They are Murder on the Orient Express and The Blue Train mystery.

Television Comments will continue with A Country Podcast to be added to the November 6 blog. Update…I was so busy watching the Presidential Election coverage I didn’t have time to listen to the podcast. More on both next week.

Bob McMullan, prediction for the American Presidential Election

As promised I will conclude this post with my prediction. Before I do that I will outline what I see as the range of scenarios depending on the underlying assumptions and data. Of course, there are factors an observer cannot forecast. relating to voter suppression, electoral college manipulation and Supreme Court decisions. A decisive Biden victory will make the probability of any of these affecting the choice of president by the people extremely unlikely.

Scenario A

This is what I call the mainstream position. Based on polling averages RCP or 538 would have Biden winning 336 or 351 EC votes to 202 or 187 for Trump. These projected results are based on Biden winning all the states Clinton won and adding Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus the two Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska. 538 would also suggest Biden winning North Carolina. These assessments give the “toss-up” states of Iowa, Ohio and Texas to Trump. These would add 62 EC votes if Biden wins them all.

Scenario B

This is the final prediction from the Virginia Center for Politics and seems a reasonable indicator of the middle-ground. Professor Sabato and his team have forecast Biden winning 321 to 217 for Trump. It differs from Scenario A in that it suggests Trump will win Florida and the Maine 2nd District. They have been consistently pessimistic about the Democrat’s capacity to actually deliver on the ground in Florida.

Scenario C

For those still scarred by 2016, this scenario is based on discounting Scenario A by the distance the state polling was out in 2016 in each state. This would result in Biden winning 335-203. The discount factor would mean Trump would win North Carolina and Maine 2nd district.

Scenario D

This scenario is based on the minority polling stream from the pollsters which have delivered results more favorable to Republicans. This would result in a Trump win or a very narrow Biden win. All pollsters agree that Biden will win Wisconsin. Some of these firms give Biden a win in Michigan or Pennsylvania or Michigan. The Trafalgar group is the outlier whose results would give Biden only Wisconsin and would result in a 242/296 win for Trump. I don’t think this is likely for the reasons I have given previously but it is unwise to ignore the results you don’t like.

Bob’s forecast

Given that the national polling gives Biden a lead greater than any Presidential candidate since 1996 and that no candidate has ever lost from a position even remotely close to Biden’s 8.6% lead I am confident that Joe Biden will win the national vote and a substantial Electoral College advantage. The hard part is predicting State by State. It is similar to picking Australian elections seat by seat rather than overall. Local variations always catch you out. However, here goes my best assessment. My best assessment is that Biden will win at least 306 Electoral College votes and possibly as many as 375. This is based on Biden winning : Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This is the conventional path to victory, In addition I think he will win Arizona and the Nebraska 2nd district.

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My more courageous prediction is that Biden will pull off a victory in Georgia. He has the wind in his sails there. He could get to 375 by winning North Carolina, Florida, ME2, Ohio and Iowa. I have listed them in the order of what I consider to be their probability of going to Biden. I have not included Texas, which looks to me to be a bridge too far but will be worth watching on the night.

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Bob McMullan, early posts American Presidential Election

16th June

According to my analysis of the polling in the US, Joe Biden is on course to win by a big margin with an outside chance of a landslide victory. I understand that many people will be dubious because of the failure of polling to predict the last presidential election and the 2019 Australian election. And I know there are still 22 weeks to go and a lot can happen in that time. But the signs are promising for Biden. This is not a prediction, just a description of the current situation. There are no states that Hillary Clinton won that Trump at this stage looks close to winning. Of the states which Trump won in 2016 Biden has been ahead in every recent poll in Wisconsin, Florida and Michigan. These states have 55 electoral college votes. If Biden won them he would have 287 electoral college votes and Trump 251. Furthermore, Real Clear Politics averages of the recent polls have Biden ahead in Arizona and Pennsylvania. These states would add 31 votes and result in Biden 318 and Trump 220.The polling results are also very close in North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Texas. I have not included any of these in my estimates as Trump is ahead on the averages of the polls in all five states. I intend to update this analysis each week until November.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

23 June

As promised a campaign update. A lot has happened this week, but as yet it is not showing up in any significant change in the polling data. Such data as has come out has tended to reinforce the trends I outlined last week. That is, no states which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 are in any doubt at the moment and five states which Trump won last time showing a clear (more than 4%) lead for Joe Biden. The other major source of polling data, the 538 website, is even more positive. 538 polling averages have Biden ahead in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina as well. I will wait for more data before I include these states in my electoral college analysis. So I still have Biden on 318 electoral college votes to Trump on 220. Several people raised the important question of how this polling information compares to 2016. The average gap is comparable although Biden’s lead in key states tends to be slightly larger. The key difference is the stability of the polling. Hillary Clinton’s lead between January and June 2016 averaged 5.7% but varied from 10% to 2.5%. Biden’s average lead is 5.9% but it has never been less than 5% on average in any month this year. The most likely explanation of this relative stability is Trump’s incumbency. For better or worse most people have made up their mind about him. This is particularly so for self-described “Independent” voters. Polls show Biden leading among these voters by from 9 to 17 points. In 2016 Trump won them by 4.

1 July

Another US election update. The polls overall have moved more in favour of Joe Biden, although there are some amber lights flashing to make sure there is no complacency about the result. The only state whose status has changed over the last week has been North Carolina. The Real Clear Politics averages now show a 2.2% lead for Biden. He has been ahead in 8 of the last 10 polls in North Carolina. This state added to Biden’s column would see him win 333 votes in the electoral college to 205 for Trump. This is a state which trump won by 3.7% and Mitt Romney won against Obama in 2012. The warning signs are small at this stage but remind everyone that there is still a long time to go. For example, the pollster who got Michigan closest to right in 2016 has Biden ahead by only 1% in that state while the average of the polls has Biden ahead by 8.6%. There was also on recent poll which had Trump ahead in Wisconsin. The averages have Biden still ahead there by 6.2%. The other signs are positive for Biden. RCP now has him in a tie with Trump in Ohio. The 538 polling remains better for Biden than RCP. It has Biden ahead in Ohio and in a tie in Iowa. A remarkable outlier was recorded in Missouri this week. Trump won Missouri in 2016 by 18.5%. One poll this week had Biden ahead! And 538 records only a narrow Trump lead on the average of a number of polls. I am inclined to doubt these numbers at the moment.

8 July

This week has seen the disruption of 4th July weekend. Therefore the pace of polling has been down somewhat. What there has been has tended to reinforce the two key trends: Joe Biden has a substantial lead in the national polls and in sufficient “battleground” states to win by a large margin if the results are reflected in the November election and there are occasional “outlier” results in both directions to ensure that there will remain doubt about the ultimate outcome. The current RCP averages still point to a 333 to 205 victory for Biden. For those to whom this is their first look at this update I reiterate the explanation I included in the first report. At this stage I am not making a prediction merely describing the current situation. Other reputable outlets are attempting to measure the probability of the alternative outcomes. The Economist magazine has developed a complicated formula based on historical trends. They are saying that the current situation suggests a 99% chance that Biden will win the national vote and 90% chance he will win the electoral college vote. CNN has just published an article by their polling analyst which claims that polls taken around Independence Day are highly correlated with November results in incumbent contests. The other event this week which could be significant (although it probably won’t ultimately happen) is the announcement by Kanye West that he will run. One feature of the polling results so far has been the absence of a significant third party candidate. West will certainly not win but given his closeness to Trump his announcement may indicate an attempt by the Trump campaign to split the vote. Even 1-2% can make a difference as Ralph Nader showed when he tipped George Bush over the edge to a narrow win in Florida in 2000.

15 July

Polling trend emerge gradually so each week tends to show minor changes. This week was no different in aggregate. Each week I will try to go into more detail about one State. There was a significant improvement for Biden in Florida. The latest poll had him ahead by 10! This is an outlier but there are two significant indicators which suggest Trump is in deep trouble in a state he won by 1.2% in 2016 and which has 29 electoral college votes. The average lead for Joe Biden is now 6% and Trump has not led in any of the last 16 polls taken since March. There is no guarantee of victory in November but there will need to be a big turnaround for Trump to win Florida in 16 weeks time. Other minor movements in the averages were mixed in their impact. Biden slightly improved his position in North Carolina and Texas (this is now rated as a tie!) However Trump improved his position slightly in Arizona although he is still behind. The cautious assessment of the current situation remains: Biden 333-Trump 205.

29 July

It has been a milestone week. We now have fewer than 100 days until the election, and only 60-70 days until people can start voting. There has been a flurry of polling data, but the predominant trend is stability. In the key states the results vary slightly as polling data does, but the averages and trends are remarkably stable. I thought it might be worth going over the background to the week by week data rather than just focussing on the variations. The assessments I have been giving are based on Joe Biden winning all the 232 electoral college votes Hillary Clinton won in 2016. This is not a given but all the signs point in that direction. There is not so much polling in these states but so far there have been no danger signs. In Minnesota, which reports suggest Trump has been targetting, this week polls suggest Biden is leading by an average of more than 11%! On top of these 232 Biden needs another 38 to win. 270 is the magic number. The key states I have identified to get him over the line are Michigan; Florida; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The current RCP averages for these states are: Wisconsin Biden +6.4 10 votes Michigan` Biden +8.4 16Penn Biden +7.4 20Florida Biden +7.8 29These states alone, or any three of them, would give Biden enough votes in the electoral college. In addition he is leading clearly in: North Carolina by 3% Ohio by 1.5% Arizona by 4%. Some data suggests Biden is also leading in Georgia and Texas, but at this stage the evidence is slightly against him in these states. The fact that they are even close is a significant signpost towards the election outcome at this stage.

See my October posts for later information on how the election polls have moved.

Posts week beginning 28 October

Books reviewed this week: Patricia Highsmith, People Who Knock On The Door; Wendy Clarke What She Saw; Louise Doughty, Appletree Yard and Nicholas Coleridge, The Glossy Years: Magazines, Museums, and Selective Memoirs.

Television Comments this week: following Margaret Morgan’s contribution to A Country Podcast about being a script writer on A Country Practice, I relate my experience at being a would be (and eventually failed!) scriptwriter on the program.

The West Wing – article about the episode which has been rebooted to encourage voting in the 2020 Presidential Election.

Presidential Election Debate

The mute button played a part in controlling this debate, but Donald Trump replaced his verbal attacks with facial ones. Not so effective, and Joe Biden managed to talk about his ideas, ideals and, at times, proposed policies. However, in comparison with an Australian debate between prospective Prime Ministers, the American debates are very short on articulating policy.

According to the CNN poll immediately after the debate Biden won; in the North Carolina focus group of undecided voters, he was also successful in changing some votes, while Trump changed none.

One point that seems to have resonated, with viewers and commentators, is Biden’s empathy and Trump’s distinctive and unremitting lack of empathy.  An interview on MSNBC  with Mary Trump, author of Too Much, and Never Enough (Simon &Schuster, 2020) was aired the day after the debate.

Her observations  made an good contribution to  understanding Trump’s stance, on for example, the over 500 children who were taken from their parents  by Border Control with no way of bringing parents and children back together. Her uncle’s  attitude to a child lost in a shopping centre and crying would be, she said, to be annoyed that the child was interrupting his activities.

Trump’s attitude to dealing with the pandemic seems to be similar in its lack of empathy – ‘rounding the corner’ is his response, even as numbers of cases rose on the very day after the debate.

In contrast, Joe Biden said this at a campaign event in Georgia:

‘Has the heart of this nation turned to stone? I don’t think so. I refuse to believe it. I know this country. I know our people. And I know we can unite and heal this nation’.

Leadership and empathy resonates with some of the information coming out of the New Zealand election where Jacinda Arden’s perceived empathy seems to have been in part instrumental in her success. 

Jon Meacham, Historian, MNSBC commentator, on the Debate:

‘One was running for a Fox News slot and one was running for President…you felt Biden trying to adhere to reality, and you knew Trump felt no similar compunction’.

Of course, today the election is only 6 days away. In Australia we hope to be celebrating with champagne in the garden, bearing in mind social distancing etc. No, nothing like the recent dangerous White House Garden parties .

Bob McMullan’s Report on the American Presidential Election

With less than a week to go it is possible to discern some tightening in the polls in some key states, although by no means all of them.

The overview remains that Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the national polls which is 3 to 4 times larger than Hillary Clinton’s lead at the same stage. RCP has the Biden national lead at 7.4%, 538 has it at 9.1%.

The tightening appears to be occurring in Florida and possibly Pennsylvania. RCP polling average has Trump ahead in Florida by 0.4%. The margin is obviously very slight but it is the first time for months that Trump has been ahead in Florida in any of the averages. The measured outcome is clearly distorted by one poll which showed Trump leading by 4% while most others still have Biden in front. 538 shows a slight tightening in Florida but still has Biden in front by 2%.

In Pennsylvania the averages show some ambiguity. RCP has the Biden lead down a little to 3.8% while 538 has it increasing to 5.3%. Again the result is affected by a outlier poll from Trafalgar which shows the race as a tie. It is important to note that Biden is at almost 50% (49.8%) which reflects the very low number of undecided voters and the weak performance of the Green candidate this time ( although I still wish he wasn’t there).

The only other significant change over the last week has been a noticeable improvement for Biden in Georgia in the 538 assessment. This may explain Biden’s late decision to make a major visit to Georgia this week.

I know many people are concerned about the potential for the Supreme Court to intervene to affect the result, a possibility reinforced by the last minute appointment of Justice Barrett. However, on current trends the result may well be sufficiently decisive as to remove the potential for Court decisions to impact the result. Should the election be very close there is still the possibility of the Court being influential. The Supreme Court now has three members who worked for Bush in case concerning the contested 2000 election.

While sustained attempts at voter suppression are evident, they do not appear to be having much impact so far. More than 60 million people have voted to date and it seems clear that we will see a very high voter turnout by American standards.

I will make a forecast next week (not on Wednesday!!). However, let me give two indications of the best current assessments of likely results at this stage.

The respected University of Virginia Center for Politics is currently predicting 290 Electoral College votes for Biden to 163 for Trump with 85 votes which they rank as ” toss-ups”. These 85 are from Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Maine 2nd district.

The Center will make forecasts for all the EC votes by Tuesday. However, it would be remarkable if Biden did not win some of those “toss-ups”. On today’s averages you would have to make it at least 311 for Biden.

For a more Australian style of assessment I have looked at what swing Trump will need in the last week to win. The key state for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes remains Pennsylvania. To win that state and all the others he will need to get to 270 he would need a 4-5% swing in a week, a very unlikely prospect unless some extraordinary event occurs.

In 2020 the extraordinary is always possible but, unless the minority of more pro-Trump pollsters are correct, at this stage it remains likely the Biden will win with sufficient margin to reduce the possibility of meaningful dissent or Court intervention.

A note on the relevancy to the Presidential Election 2020 of Patricia Highsmith’s People Who Knock On The Door

This novel is particularly pertinent to the Presidential election in its observations about the impact of Christian fundamentalists on people’s perception of how they should live their lives. A vulnerable young man becomes committed to a fundamentalist church. His brother and his partner become the focus of their damaging attention when they seek an abortion. A vulnerable adult woman is victimized by a purportedly Christian community leader. The novel is a sharp reminder of the duplicity behind some of the movements trying to influence American voters.

Great news about Labor’s win in Queensland. So, New Zealand, Australian Capital Territory, and now Queensland.

Please, America.

Week beginning 21 October

Television Comments: Searching for an Australian Identity, Robin Joyce; A Country Podcast, September 18, including interview with Margaret Morgan.

Book Reviews: The Wife, Meg Wolitzer; The Sister in Law, Sue Watson; The Glass Castle, Jeanette Walls.

New Zealand and ACT elections. Labour/Labor successes, in New Zealand, resoundingly so. This success is being seen as a response to an empathetic leader – a theme that is being used by Kamala Harris in her latest speeches. The speeches from all the major ACT parties, post election results, were impressive. Gracious is the word for each speech- the liberal Party was gracious in defeat; the Greens were gracious, winning more seats than ever before, and contemplating once again working with Labor; and Andrew Barr, again to become Chief Minister, was gracious in success. He also referred to again working with the Greens. For my American friends – we had voting for two weeks before election day – with numerous voting facilities, all over the ACT.

‘Did you see the fly?’

The Vice-presidential debate fly continues to create humour. Do watch Kamala Harris being interviewed by Rachel Maddow on The Rachel Maddow Show, MSNBC, 15 October 2020.

Worth thinking about…

OPINION Sydney Morning Herald

Berejiklian risks unpicking decades of feminist progress

Kristina Keneally Labor senator for NSW and former Premier of NSW

Below are some excerpts from the SMH on line article, October 18th 2020 , 12am relevant to Kristina Keneally’s argument that feminist issues apply to the Berejiklian case.

She says:

…women have fought for an equal place in society for generations. We’ve fought for our own voices to be heard and to be respected. Ultimately, we’ve fought for our own agency to be recognised. We’ve fought for the ability to make our own choices.

Therein lies the problem for Berejiklian – and the problem for women everywhere if we accept her arguments about being led astray by a bad boyfriend. The Premier is responsible for her own actions and accountable for them. The Premier has exercised her own agency. She has made her own choices.

Finally, the NSW Premier shouldn’t have the luxury of unpicking decades of feminist progress. We cannot now claim that women are so weak of mind and heart that our romantic entanglements impair us from exercising scrutiny. We cannot now claim that our emotions stop us from living up to our ethical and professional responsibilities. Such a sexist argument is precisely the kind of thing that has been used by men in years gone by to keep women out of leadership roles in politics and the corporate world…

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

Presidential Campaign Update 21/10 – Bob McMullan

It remains the case that there is a stability around polling for the 2020 Presidential election. Individual polls vary slightly and state-by-state polling shows similar variations. But the trends and patterns are constant.

The overwhelming majority of mainstream pollsters and analysts suggest that with less than two weeks to go Joe Biden is 7-10% ahead in the national polls and ahead in states that would deliver 290-350 Electoral college votes.

There is still time for this pattern to change, for example as a result of the Presidential debate this week. The increased turn-out of early voters should not disguise the fact that most voters will vote on 3 November and therefore still have time to change their minds.

The alternative reality also continues. The minority of pollsters and analysts see a very close contest and a probable victory for Trump. I have discussed the arcane methodological underpinning of this difference in the past. Only the actual results will now determine which trend is accurate.

The three other discussion points are:

. who will win control of the Senate? and

. what are the likely impacts of different reporting and counting regimes in different states? and

. will Republican voter suppression efforts distort the results.

Senate

The Democrats need a net gain of 3 Senate seats to win control of the Senate if they win the Presidency. On the assumption that they lose the seat in Alabama which they won in extraordinary circumstances, Democrats will need to win 4 others.

The best prospects seem to be Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina (notwithstanding the Democratic candidate’s domestic troubles) and Maine. Democrats lead consistently in all 5 states. The others to watch are South Carolina, Alaska and Montana. There is also an outside chance for Democrats in Mississippi (where their candidate is Mike Espy who I met in the 1990s when he was Secretary of Agriculture) and for Republicans in Michigan.

I will have more to say about the various voting arrangements in different states next week, but the consensus appears to be that the reporting of early voting and absentee ballots should be quickest in Florida. North Carolina and Arizona also have cut-off dates and processing arrangements which should provide clarity on the night. Australian experience with postal voting would suggest that while some votes trickle in over the days subsequent to the voting day these are only decisive in the closest of contests.

On the question of voter suppression, some of it is hidden as the voters are unable to register to vote in the first place. However, the very significant number of people voting early (28 million so far) suggests that the undermining of confidence in the mail-in voting system has only succeeded in encouraging an increase in early in-person voting. It appears the turn-out will be large by American standards but how many voters were deterred by the long waiting times and restrictive physical arrangements for voting will be almost impossible to determine.