Week beginning 9 December, 2020

Books: Reviews – the following material has been moved to Book Reviews: Archives, Agatha Christie’s The ABC Murders and 4.50 From Paddington; and Part 1 Racism, Classism and Sexism in Agatha Christies.

Television: Comments – material moved to Television Comments: Archives is American Presidential Election; and Brothers and Sisters. New material: A Country Podcast; The Crown; The Queen’s Gambit.

I visited The Australian National Gallery where excellent Covid 19 arrangements are in place. Visitors are greeted at the entrance and directed to registration and hand sanitiser is in two places at the entry. Registration is simple, and aimed at tracking visitors, the number and the time they enter the gallery. Membership cards suffice but are not essential.

The Gallery has some exciting exhibitions at the moment.

MIKALA DWYER

Born Warrang/Sydney 1959

Square cloud compound 2010 Warrang/Sydney wood, paint, cotton, polyester, nylon, plastic, glass, ceramic, stone, acrylic, leather, copper, electrical components.

Collection: Museum of Contemporary Art Australia, Sydney. Purchased with funds provided by the MCA Foundation, 2015.

Square cloud compound draws on the history of Cockatoo Island, a site which since colonialisation has operated as a prison and an institutional home for young women. Dwyer grew up visiting the site and has a ‘long engagement’ with its ‘ghosts’. The vibrant patchwork of materials in this work- including lamps, stockings, fabric and beer bottles- forms an oversize cubbyhouse that evokes a childlike sense of wonder and discovery, while its floating walls also offer a means of escape.

And this is a particularly amusing painting in the Indigenous Art section.

Georgia Runoff Senate Elections – Selena Montgomery and Stacey Abrams

Stacey Abrams is a force in Georgia Democrat politics, and an essential part of the campaign to win the two Senate seats in the run off elections to be held on January 5 2021. Part of her campaign has been fundraising, and here, her other persona has been important. She helped raise $400,000 at a romance writers fundraiser for the Senate Run Off Elections. As well as being the epitome of a political activist she is also the romance writer, Selena Montgomery.

Abrams wrote her first novel during her third year at Yale Law School, inspired after reading her ex-boyfriend’s PhD dissertation in chemical physics. She had wanted to write a spy novel: “For me, for other young black girls, I wanted to write books that showed them to be as adventurous and attractive as any white woman,” she wrote in her memoir Minority Leader. But after being told repeatedly by editors that women don’t read spy novels, and that men don’t read spy novels by women, she made her spies fall in love. Rules of Engagement, her debut, was published in 2001, and sees temperatures flare as covert operative Raleigh partners with the handsome Adam Grayson to infiltrate a terrorist group that has stolen deadly environmental technology’ (The Guardian, Australian Edition, Books Blog, 10 November 2020).

About one of Selena Montgomery’s novels, Deception:

Always on the run . . .
Playing the odds has always been Fin Borders’ forte. She knows when to get out to keep from losing everything. But an innocent woman has been accused of murder, and to help, Fin will have to go back to the small southern town of her birth. It’s a place she’s been running from her entire life, a place of violence, where she got by with nothing more than her wits. Returning to Hallden, Georgia, means facing the ghosts of a brutal crime that Fin will never forget—and risking her own life.
But Fin isn’t the only one in Hallden hunting for a killer. FBI Special Agent Caleb Matthews is deep undercover, hiding his true identity and his own desperate history. Working alone is far too dangerous, so he and Fin must learn to trust each other. But as they grow closer, they are unprepared for the passion that takes hold . . . and the shocking deception that could destroy everything they hold dear.

Another politician of note, British Labour Party Helen Liddell, Baroness Liddell of Coatdyke, is also a writer of fiction, publishing a ‘bodice ripper’ before she entered parliament in 1994. Such eminent women having worked on popular texts suggests that my work on popular writers, and women’s roles in soap opera might also resonate with thinking women. A topic for a blog in the future.

But, back to the Senate runoffs- Stacey Abrams has been campaigning through virtual meetings to ‘get out the vote’. A commentator on MNSBC was succinct – if people want to win the Senate seats, do what Stacey Abrams says’.

I hope that they do.

Brilliant and Bold! a Zoom meeting hosted by Jocelynne Scutt

Sunday, December 13 2020 11am UK time (10.00pm Australian time)

Leaping the Hurdles! Overturning the Obstacles! Four brilliant & bold women tell us how it’s done, how they face forward into the day, despite the odds, confronting the patriarch – and maintaining their enthusiasm despite the knocks! Greece, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom … and You! 

I have attended all of these meetings, and thoroughly enjoyed them. The speakers are interesting, questions can be asked, and general participation is encouraged.

Safe Harbour Day has arrived in America – by late Monday 8th (American time) every state but Hawaii has certified its results, securing Joe Biden more than the 270 electoral college votes he needs to become president.

The Supreme Court threw out the only pro -Trump case to get to that court – in a one sentence decision.

Week beginning 2 December

Book reviews: The early material related to An indulgence of Agatha Christies has been moved to Book Reviews: Archives. This includes the introduction, reviews of two books about Christie’s life and work: Laura Thompson, Agatha Christie: A Mysterious Life and John Curran, Agatha Christie’s Complete Secret Notebooks: Stories and Secrets of Murder in the Making and reviews of The Agatha Christie Collection and the international novels in the train series – .Murder On The Orient Express and The Blue Train Mystery.

Television Comments: American Presidential Election has been moved to Television Comments: Archives. This week, I add further comments on An Australian Podcast , including an interview with Judy Calquhoun, one of A Country Practice’s script writers, notably of many of the deaths that occur in the program.

A Country Podcast has posted on their Facebook page that they would like to make shows in Australian cities – but seem to have a preference for Noosa or Margaret River so they can enjoy a holiday as well as produce a program. I, too, am contemplating a holiday to Noosa – and what fun to be around the show.

Wombat at Narawntapu national park in TasmaniaRelated images:

Part 1 of Racism, Sexism and Classism in Agatha Christie’s Novels is now complete, finishing with reference to the 1920s novels.

I am currently reading Christie’s Come, Tell Me How You Live, her story of life on Archeological sites. This will be reviewed when completed.

A few days later – oh joy, I have finished and a review appears on the Book Reviews page.

President Elect, Joe Biden, has nominated an impressive all women communications team. The historical line up represented the diversity of America.

Bing Images

Will the likes of a CJ (The West Wing) be at the podium giving press briefings? Lawrence O’Donnell , The Last Word, recently interviewed Richard Schiff, with comments from other The West Wing favourites – the interview introduced by the music from The West Wing. This was great to listen to – I must re-watch the whole show.

Three Hours by Rosamund Lupton is the fourth of her books that I have read. I was impressed by the other three. However, Three Hours is such a feat of exquisite plotting, dramatic tension, political and literary force and a tribute to love, resilience, and young people of independence, courage and ideas, together with the school system and teachers who encouraged them to be thus that it stands out against even Lupton’s earlier work.

Bing Image

I was reading until 4.00 am (what a pity I am not in America where I could use this as the reason for being awake for Way Too Early with Kasie Hunt) because the tension was too much to bear without some sort of resolution. That achieved, in at least a minor way, I slept, then finished this morning. A review is in the making, but I have far from finished with Christie.

Week beginning 25 November

Booker Prize goes to Scottish author Douglas Stuart for debut novel Shuggie Bain. Book reviews@ By arts editor Dee Jefferson.

Book Reviews: Introduction to reviews of Agatha Christie novels which reflect racist, sexist and classist ideas. This introduction is based on my article Ethical Fiction: Essential? Desirable? Irrelevant? Review of Agatha Christie’s The Mysterious Affair at Styles.

Television Comment:   An Australian Podcast, November 13, 2020 and Brothers and Sisters, 2006 – 2011.

American Presidential Election
Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

The Presidential Election remains in the headlines and commentary on MNSBC and CNN as President Trump refuses to acknowledge his loss, and ensure the usual seamless transition to the new administration. Joe Scarborough, Morning Joe, refers to a coup, and reflects upon his time as a Republican – very circumstances and behaviour, under very different leadership. Edward Luce, Financial Times, expresses concerns about new appointments that bode ill for the incoming administration. Claire McCaskill, former Senator, believes that the reluctance to take Trump to account is concern about winning the two Senate seats in Georgia. MNSBC, 23/11/2020 (Australia). Various attempts to overturn the election results through court cases are being rejected, sometimes with scathing opinions from Judges. . Trump plays golf at the G20 instead of attending a session on Coronavirus.

Photo by Daria Shevtsova on Pexels.com

and having hope that America can survive the Trump era and prosper under the Biden-Harris leadership.

I just arrived home after coffee, knowing that Emily Murphy had, at long last, done her duty. When I turned on the television (an addiction I’ve given into over the past weeks sine the election of Joe Biden as Presidential Elect) what joy to find

Lawrence O’Donnell The Last Word

16 Days – and Emily Murphy signs : CSA Begins Presidential Transition Process MSNBC (10.12 PM CT)

Lawrence O’Donnell’s commentary on the days between when Joe Biden became the apparent winner of the 2020 Presidential Election has been amazing – strong, informative, forthright – and correct. Today (2,00 pm Australian time) he and his panel, Jennifer Palamerii and John Heilemann have given a spirited account of the events, the background, and the possible activity that has taken place in the administration in the past 16 days.

Today the programs were introducing Americans (and others) to what has been described as the most professional team assembled to the various offices which are now to be filled by the Biden- Harris team.

Covid protection on the walk to my coffee in Canberra

I am looking forward to reading Jocelynne Scutt’s newest publication

Posts week beginning 18 November 2020

Book reviews: The Agatha Christie indulgence continues, with another train related mystery, The ABC Murders. I began these as I was indulging a long held aspiration to travel on The Ghan from Adelaide to Alice Springs, and was thinking about the romance and joy associated with such travel. Of course, Christie does not dwell on these, but amongst the murders there is some romance and joy. On the Ghan there was only the latter.

Television comments: Some short reflections on the American coverage of the Presidential Election. Comments on A Country Podcast will resume after I have indulged myself on CNN and MNSBC commentary.

American Presidential Election

As Bob McMullan predicted, Joe Biden won the Presidential Election. The result in Pennsylvania made Biden the President Elect, and Arizona and Georgia gave McMullan his predicted 306 Electoral College votes for Biden. Although at this time President Trump has not conceded, his innumerable attempts to find another outcome through the courts have been unsuccessful – many being rejected immediately.

The Ghan, Alice Springs and Yalara

Waiting for the 306 electoral votes was not hard, after celebrating Biden’s win at the station before leaving on The Ghan for Alice Springs.

Before entering the station lounge measures against Covid 19 were taken, including temperature checks and Border Control forms. These had already been completed – not an onerous task! But how different from usual. It reminded me of the border controls in Europe years ago, when our passports were checked at each country’s border. Preparation for our European travels post Brexit and post Covid?

The lounge, rarely empty, but reminiscent of Michael Portillo’s trip on The Ghan televised in Great Australian Train Journeys. Plenty of champagne (and other drinks, of course), nibbles and discussion.

A good night’s sleep and an early rise to see the sunrise at Marla. Vegemite scolls and bacon and egg rolls are served with orange juice, tea and coffee.

The landscape seen from the train and the train moving though the landscape. The front of the train is around the curve.

Before alighting in Alice Springs a health pack was distributed. Another Border Pass was viewed by efficient and pleasant staff. One of the only two camels I saw was this statue at the station. Note, The Ghan is so long one does not alight at what normally passes for a station. Steps were used for us to get to the ground.

Alice Springs – impressive Indigenous Art Galleries, taxis everywhere, hot (but not oppressive), wide streets, makes me want to reread A Town Like Alice by Nevile Shute. A friend told me about the emus I would see on the way to Alice – not an emu to be seen, evidently I’ll have to go to Broken Hill to see them out of captivity. No camels either! To be fair , I could have gone to the Camel Farm, but I wanted to see them roaming free.

Fan Arcade where we enjoyed cold drinks, bemoaned the absence of Leah when there was a dog bowl for her, and appreciated the fans and sails above.

Peacock at our Alice Springs Hotel – gorgeous show off, posturing when anyone approached. No , we did not use the doors behind him to get to the pool!

After the Alice Springs sojourn we began our Uluru experience by coach, with stops at an eccentric road café, and a more conventional one. A camel and emu reside in a fenced, but large enclosure. But I’d rather not have seen them because they were free in the bush.

The driver was informative and chatty. What stood out amongst the chat was the commitment to Indigenous culture and their rights amongst the demands of tourists. Covid care was impressive. We were also warned to buy fly nets, which we did.

This early morning trip began a feature of the trip – arising at 4.00, and once at 3.30. So, lots of slumbering on the coaches that took us to the various sites.

Kata Tjuta Sunset

The first visit after our arrival and settling into the lovely Sails in the Desert was Kata Tjuta for the sunset. Kata Tjuta is also known as the Olgas, but consistently the guides use the Indigenous names, while linking them to the European names for clarity.

Uluru Sunrise and Sunset

Instead of walking up the rock, tourists now enjoy the walk around the base of the rock – a much more comfortable exercise as well as meeting the traditional owners’ requirements. One person confronted the guide about the new rules, and was deflected so politely but so firmly that he was left with no misunderstanding about the way in which the guides consider the rights of the indigenous owners.

Some sites around the base were sacred so photos were not allowed.

Rock art was able to be photographed, including that in a family cave, and a ‘kitchen’ cave.

Breakfasts and coffees were enjoyed at the Indigenous hospitality training café. This included a reminder of a Parisian meringue! On the walk to the café I saw my first live Sturt Pea.

Field of Light

Field of Light is an installation between Uluru and Kata Tjuta. Bruce Munro is the artist. Unfortunately photos may be taken, but not reproduced on line. Although it is clear that this blog could in no way be considered commercial, reading the information suggests that no photos can be replicated. This is such a pity as the installation was stunning and it would be lovely if it could be seen by more than the visitors to Uluru. I’m going to ask the artist if I am understanding the information as I’d love to add the photos to this blog.

Update on Bruce Munro – I received a lovely response to my request to use the photos. So here they are, and please read and adhere to the copyright notification below.

Copyright (c)2016 Bruce Munro. All rights reserved.

I was pleased to see this installation at sunrise, as we were able to walk through the art at the height of its beauty. The photo, bottom LHS, shows the installation as the light from the sun takes over. Other tours take place at night so that the lights gradually appear as the sun sets – more comfortable than arising early, and beautiful in its own way, I expect.

Further, Bruce Munro is holding an exhibition in Melbourne at the Heidi Gallery next year from June until October. I shall make that part of my Melbourne trip.

Posts week beginning November 2

This week part of the blog will begin a day early, so as to include Bob McMullan’s prediction for the 2020 American Presidential Election before the vote is counted in America. After the prediction post I have also added some of the material from his weekly reports on the election.

Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!
Conversations with fabulously fascinating, always interesting, enviably engaging women … Sunday 15 November join the mayor of Broken Hill, New South Wales, a Spanish student returned to study at Anglia Ruskin, Cambridge, an Italian environmental fashion designer, and an Israeli former librarian who spends time in Italy, Israel & Australia … Plus women from all over the world – Join our global conversation … ‘Courage Speaks to Courage Everywhere … Women’s Voices Must be Heard …’

Book Reviews for the next few weeks will concentrate on Agatha Christie’s work, and related nonfiction sources. My Agatha Christie Indulgence for a couple of weeks, although possibly dated (I say possibly because her novels continue to be published) is based on the pleasure I have had in revisiting the novels through membership of the Goodreads site. I joined the group having enjoyed a trip to Greenway, Agatha Christie’s home in Devon. Years before I had been taken by friends to her home in Wallingford and grave in Cholsey. The indulgence will start with two nonfiction books, Laura Thompson – Agatha Christie: A Mysterious Life and Agatha Christie’s Complete Secret Notebooks: Stories and Secrets of Murder in the Making John Curran. Before I begin my own train travel (travel after the borders of South Australia opened, what joy!) two of Christies train novels will be added on Friday 6th November. They are Murder on the Orient Express and The Blue Train mystery.

Television Comments will continue with A Country Podcast to be added to the November 6 blog. Update…I was so busy watching the Presidential Election coverage I didn’t have time to listen to the podcast. More on both next week.

Bob McMullan, prediction for the American Presidential Election

As promised I will conclude this post with my prediction. Before I do that I will outline what I see as the range of scenarios depending on the underlying assumptions and data. Of course, there are factors an observer cannot forecast. relating to voter suppression, electoral college manipulation and Supreme Court decisions. A decisive Biden victory will make the probability of any of these affecting the choice of president by the people extremely unlikely.

Scenario A

This is what I call the mainstream position. Based on polling averages RCP or 538 would have Biden winning 336 or 351 EC votes to 202 or 187 for Trump. These projected results are based on Biden winning all the states Clinton won and adding Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin plus the two Congressional Districts in Maine and Nebraska. 538 would also suggest Biden winning North Carolina. These assessments give the “toss-up” states of Iowa, Ohio and Texas to Trump. These would add 62 EC votes if Biden wins them all.

Scenario B

This is the final prediction from the Virginia Center for Politics and seems a reasonable indicator of the middle-ground. Professor Sabato and his team have forecast Biden winning 321 to 217 for Trump. It differs from Scenario A in that it suggests Trump will win Florida and the Maine 2nd District. They have been consistently pessimistic about the Democrat’s capacity to actually deliver on the ground in Florida.

Scenario C

For those still scarred by 2016, this scenario is based on discounting Scenario A by the distance the state polling was out in 2016 in each state. This would result in Biden winning 335-203. The discount factor would mean Trump would win North Carolina and Maine 2nd district.

Scenario D

This scenario is based on the minority polling stream from the pollsters which have delivered results more favorable to Republicans. This would result in a Trump win or a very narrow Biden win. All pollsters agree that Biden will win Wisconsin. Some of these firms give Biden a win in Michigan or Pennsylvania or Michigan. The Trafalgar group is the outlier whose results would give Biden only Wisconsin and would result in a 242/296 win for Trump. I don’t think this is likely for the reasons I have given previously but it is unwise to ignore the results you don’t like.

Bob’s forecast

Given that the national polling gives Biden a lead greater than any Presidential candidate since 1996 and that no candidate has ever lost from a position even remotely close to Biden’s 8.6% lead I am confident that Joe Biden will win the national vote and a substantial Electoral College advantage. The hard part is predicting State by State. It is similar to picking Australian elections seat by seat rather than overall. Local variations always catch you out. However, here goes my best assessment. My best assessment is that Biden will win at least 306 Electoral College votes and possibly as many as 375. This is based on Biden winning : Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This is the conventional path to victory, In addition I think he will win Arizona and the Nebraska 2nd district.

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My more courageous prediction is that Biden will pull off a victory in Georgia. He has the wind in his sails there. He could get to 375 by winning North Carolina, Florida, ME2, Ohio and Iowa. I have listed them in the order of what I consider to be their probability of going to Biden. I have not included Texas, which looks to me to be a bridge too far but will be worth watching on the night.

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Bob McMullan, early posts American Presidential Election

16th June

According to my analysis of the polling in the US, Joe Biden is on course to win by a big margin with an outside chance of a landslide victory. I understand that many people will be dubious because of the failure of polling to predict the last presidential election and the 2019 Australian election. And I know there are still 22 weeks to go and a lot can happen in that time. But the signs are promising for Biden. This is not a prediction, just a description of the current situation. There are no states that Hillary Clinton won that Trump at this stage looks close to winning. Of the states which Trump won in 2016 Biden has been ahead in every recent poll in Wisconsin, Florida and Michigan. These states have 55 electoral college votes. If Biden won them he would have 287 electoral college votes and Trump 251. Furthermore, Real Clear Politics averages of the recent polls have Biden ahead in Arizona and Pennsylvania. These states would add 31 votes and result in Biden 318 and Trump 220.The polling results are also very close in North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia and Texas. I have not included any of these in my estimates as Trump is ahead on the averages of the polls in all five states. I intend to update this analysis each week until November.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

23 June

As promised a campaign update. A lot has happened this week, but as yet it is not showing up in any significant change in the polling data. Such data as has come out has tended to reinforce the trends I outlined last week. That is, no states which Hillary Clinton won in 2016 are in any doubt at the moment and five states which Trump won last time showing a clear (more than 4%) lead for Joe Biden. The other major source of polling data, the 538 website, is even more positive. 538 polling averages have Biden ahead in Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina as well. I will wait for more data before I include these states in my electoral college analysis. So I still have Biden on 318 electoral college votes to Trump on 220. Several people raised the important question of how this polling information compares to 2016. The average gap is comparable although Biden’s lead in key states tends to be slightly larger. The key difference is the stability of the polling. Hillary Clinton’s lead between January and June 2016 averaged 5.7% but varied from 10% to 2.5%. Biden’s average lead is 5.9% but it has never been less than 5% on average in any month this year. The most likely explanation of this relative stability is Trump’s incumbency. For better or worse most people have made up their mind about him. This is particularly so for self-described “Independent” voters. Polls show Biden leading among these voters by from 9 to 17 points. In 2016 Trump won them by 4.

1 July

Another US election update. The polls overall have moved more in favour of Joe Biden, although there are some amber lights flashing to make sure there is no complacency about the result. The only state whose status has changed over the last week has been North Carolina. The Real Clear Politics averages now show a 2.2% lead for Biden. He has been ahead in 8 of the last 10 polls in North Carolina. This state added to Biden’s column would see him win 333 votes in the electoral college to 205 for Trump. This is a state which trump won by 3.7% and Mitt Romney won against Obama in 2012. The warning signs are small at this stage but remind everyone that there is still a long time to go. For example, the pollster who got Michigan closest to right in 2016 has Biden ahead by only 1% in that state while the average of the polls has Biden ahead by 8.6%. There was also on recent poll which had Trump ahead in Wisconsin. The averages have Biden still ahead there by 6.2%. The other signs are positive for Biden. RCP now has him in a tie with Trump in Ohio. The 538 polling remains better for Biden than RCP. It has Biden ahead in Ohio and in a tie in Iowa. A remarkable outlier was recorded in Missouri this week. Trump won Missouri in 2016 by 18.5%. One poll this week had Biden ahead! And 538 records only a narrow Trump lead on the average of a number of polls. I am inclined to doubt these numbers at the moment.

8 July

This week has seen the disruption of 4th July weekend. Therefore the pace of polling has been down somewhat. What there has been has tended to reinforce the two key trends: Joe Biden has a substantial lead in the national polls and in sufficient “battleground” states to win by a large margin if the results are reflected in the November election and there are occasional “outlier” results in both directions to ensure that there will remain doubt about the ultimate outcome. The current RCP averages still point to a 333 to 205 victory for Biden. For those to whom this is their first look at this update I reiterate the explanation I included in the first report. At this stage I am not making a prediction merely describing the current situation. Other reputable outlets are attempting to measure the probability of the alternative outcomes. The Economist magazine has developed a complicated formula based on historical trends. They are saying that the current situation suggests a 99% chance that Biden will win the national vote and 90% chance he will win the electoral college vote. CNN has just published an article by their polling analyst which claims that polls taken around Independence Day are highly correlated with November results in incumbent contests. The other event this week which could be significant (although it probably won’t ultimately happen) is the announcement by Kanye West that he will run. One feature of the polling results so far has been the absence of a significant third party candidate. West will certainly not win but given his closeness to Trump his announcement may indicate an attempt by the Trump campaign to split the vote. Even 1-2% can make a difference as Ralph Nader showed when he tipped George Bush over the edge to a narrow win in Florida in 2000.

15 July

Polling trend emerge gradually so each week tends to show minor changes. This week was no different in aggregate. Each week I will try to go into more detail about one State. There was a significant improvement for Biden in Florida. The latest poll had him ahead by 10! This is an outlier but there are two significant indicators which suggest Trump is in deep trouble in a state he won by 1.2% in 2016 and which has 29 electoral college votes. The average lead for Joe Biden is now 6% and Trump has not led in any of the last 16 polls taken since March. There is no guarantee of victory in November but there will need to be a big turnaround for Trump to win Florida in 16 weeks time. Other minor movements in the averages were mixed in their impact. Biden slightly improved his position in North Carolina and Texas (this is now rated as a tie!) However Trump improved his position slightly in Arizona although he is still behind. The cautious assessment of the current situation remains: Biden 333-Trump 205.

29 July

It has been a milestone week. We now have fewer than 100 days until the election, and only 60-70 days until people can start voting. There has been a flurry of polling data, but the predominant trend is stability. In the key states the results vary slightly as polling data does, but the averages and trends are remarkably stable. I thought it might be worth going over the background to the week by week data rather than just focussing on the variations. The assessments I have been giving are based on Joe Biden winning all the 232 electoral college votes Hillary Clinton won in 2016. This is not a given but all the signs point in that direction. There is not so much polling in these states but so far there have been no danger signs. In Minnesota, which reports suggest Trump has been targetting, this week polls suggest Biden is leading by an average of more than 11%! On top of these 232 Biden needs another 38 to win. 270 is the magic number. The key states I have identified to get him over the line are Michigan; Florida; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The current RCP averages for these states are: Wisconsin Biden +6.4 10 votes Michigan` Biden +8.4 16Penn Biden +7.4 20Florida Biden +7.8 29These states alone, or any three of them, would give Biden enough votes in the electoral college. In addition he is leading clearly in: North Carolina by 3% Ohio by 1.5% Arizona by 4%. Some data suggests Biden is also leading in Georgia and Texas, but at this stage the evidence is slightly against him in these states. The fact that they are even close is a significant signpost towards the election outcome at this stage.

See my October posts for later information on how the election polls have moved.

Posts week beginning 28 October

Books reviewed this week: Patricia Highsmith, People Who Knock On The Door; Wendy Clarke What She Saw; Louise Doughty, Appletree Yard and Nicholas Coleridge, The Glossy Years: Magazines, Museums, and Selective Memoirs.

Television Comments this week: following Margaret Morgan’s contribution to A Country Podcast about being a script writer on A Country Practice, I relate my experience at being a would be (and eventually failed!) scriptwriter on the program.

The West Wing – article about the episode which has been rebooted to encourage voting in the 2020 Presidential Election.

Presidential Election Debate

The mute button played a part in controlling this debate, but Donald Trump replaced his verbal attacks with facial ones. Not so effective, and Joe Biden managed to talk about his ideas, ideals and, at times, proposed policies. However, in comparison with an Australian debate between prospective Prime Ministers, the American debates are very short on articulating policy.

According to the CNN poll immediately after the debate Biden won; in the North Carolina focus group of undecided voters, he was also successful in changing some votes, while Trump changed none.

One point that seems to have resonated, with viewers and commentators, is Biden’s empathy and Trump’s distinctive and unremitting lack of empathy.  An interview on MSNBC  with Mary Trump, author of Too Much, and Never Enough (Simon &Schuster, 2020) was aired the day after the debate.

Her observations  made an good contribution to  understanding Trump’s stance, on for example, the over 500 children who were taken from their parents  by Border Control with no way of bringing parents and children back together. Her uncle’s  attitude to a child lost in a shopping centre and crying would be, she said, to be annoyed that the child was interrupting his activities.

Trump’s attitude to dealing with the pandemic seems to be similar in its lack of empathy – ‘rounding the corner’ is his response, even as numbers of cases rose on the very day after the debate.

In contrast, Joe Biden said this at a campaign event in Georgia:

Has the heart of this nation turned to stone? I don’t think so. I refuse to believe it. I know this country. I know our people. And I know we can unite and heal this nation’.

Leadership and empathy resonates with some of the information coming out of the New Zealand election where Jacinda Arden’s perceived empathy seems to have been in part instrumental in her success. 

Jon Meacham, Historian, MNSBC commentator, on the Debate:

‘One was running for a Fox News slot and one was running for President…you felt Biden trying to adhere to reality, and you knew Trump felt no similar compunction’.

Of course, today the election is only 6 days away. In Australia we hope to be celebrating with champagne in the garden, bearing in mind social distancing etc. No, nothing like the recent dangerous White House Garden parties .

Bob McMullan’s Report on the American Presidential Election

With less than a week to go it is possible to discern some tightening in the polls in some key states, although by no means all of them.

The overview remains that Joe Biden has a commanding lead in the national polls which is 3 to 4 times larger than Hillary Clinton’s lead at the same stage. RCP has the Biden national lead at 7.4%, 538 has it at 9.1%.

The tightening appears to be occurring in Florida and possibly Pennsylvania. RCP polling average has Trump ahead in Florida by 0.4%. The margin is obviously very slight but it is the first time for months that Trump has been ahead in Florida in any of the averages. The measured outcome is clearly distorted by one poll which showed Trump leading by 4% while most others still have Biden in front. 538 shows a slight tightening in Florida but still has Biden in front by 2%.

In Pennsylvania the averages show some ambiguity. RCP has the Biden lead down a little to 3.8% while 538 has it increasing to 5.3%. Again the result is affected by a outlier poll from Trafalgar which shows the race as a tie. It is important to note that Biden is at almost 50% (49.8%) which reflects the very low number of undecided voters and the weak performance of the Green candidate this time ( although I still wish he wasn’t there).

The only other significant change over the last week has been a noticeable improvement for Biden in Georgia in the 538 assessment. This may explain Biden’s late decision to make a major visit to Georgia this week.

I know many people are concerned about the potential for the Supreme Court to intervene to affect the result, a possibility reinforced by the last minute appointment of Justice Barrett. However, on current trends the result may well be sufficiently decisive as to remove the potential for Court decisions to impact the result. Should the election be very close there is still the possibility of the Court being influential. The Supreme Court now has three members who worked for Bush in case concerning the contested 2000 election.

While sustained attempts at voter suppression are evident, they do not appear to be having much impact so far. More than 60 million people have voted to date and it seems clear that we will see a very high voter turnout by American standards.

I will make a forecast next week (not on Wednesday!!). However, let me give two indications of the best current assessments of likely results at this stage.

The respected University of Virginia Center for Politics is currently predicting 290 Electoral College votes for Biden to 163 for Trump with 85 votes which they rank as ” toss-ups”. These 85 are from Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and Maine 2nd district.

The Center will make forecasts for all the EC votes by Tuesday. However, it would be remarkable if Biden did not win some of those “toss-ups”. On today’s averages you would have to make it at least 311 for Biden.

For a more Australian style of assessment I have looked at what swing Trump will need in the last week to win. The key state for Trump to get to 270 Electoral College votes remains Pennsylvania. To win that state and all the others he will need to get to 270 he would need a 4-5% swing in a week, a very unlikely prospect unless some extraordinary event occurs.

In 2020 the extraordinary is always possible but, unless the minority of more pro-Trump pollsters are correct, at this stage it remains likely the Biden will win with sufficient margin to reduce the possibility of meaningful dissent or Court intervention.

A note on the relevancy to the Presidential Election 2020 of Patricia Highsmith’s People Who Knock On The Door

This novel is particularly pertinent to the Presidential election in its observations about the impact of Christian fundamentalists on people’s perception of how they should live their lives. A vulnerable young man becomes committed to a fundamentalist church. His brother and his partner become the focus of their damaging attention when they seek an abortion. A vulnerable adult woman is victimized by a purportedly Christian community leader. The novel is a sharp reminder of the duplicity behind some of the movements trying to influence American voters.

Great news about Labor’s win in Queensland. So, New Zealand, Australian Capital Territory, and now Queensland.

Please, America.

Week beginning 21 October

Television Comments: Searching for an Australian Identity, Robin Joyce; A Country Podcast, September 18, including interview with Margaret Morgan.

Book Reviews: The Wife, Meg Wolitzer; The Sister in Law, Sue Watson; The Glass Castle, Jeanette Walls.

New Zealand and ACT elections. Labour/Labor successes, in New Zealand, resoundingly so. This success is being seen as a response to an empathetic leader – a theme that is being used by Kamala Harris in her latest speeches. The speeches from all the major ACT parties, post election results, were impressive. Gracious is the word for each speech- the liberal Party was gracious in defeat; the Greens were gracious, winning more seats than ever before, and contemplating once again working with Labor; and Andrew Barr, again to become Chief Minister, was gracious in success. He also referred to again working with the Greens. For my American friends – we had voting for two weeks before election day – with numerous voting facilities, all over the ACT.

‘Did you see the fly?’

The Vice-presidential debate fly continues to create humour. Do watch Kamala Harris being interviewed by Rachel Maddow on The Rachel Maddow Show, MSNBC, 15 October 2020.

Worth thinking about…

OPINION Sydney Morning Herald

Berejiklian risks unpicking decades of feminist progress

Kristina Keneally Labor senator for NSW and former Premier of NSW

Below are some excerpts from the SMH on line article, October 18th 2020 , 12am relevant to Kristina Keneally’s argument that feminist issues apply to the Berejiklian case.

She says:

…women have fought for an equal place in society for generations. We’ve fought for our own voices to be heard and to be respected. Ultimately, we’ve fought for our own agency to be recognised. We’ve fought for the ability to make our own choices.

Therein lies the problem for Berejiklian – and the problem for women everywhere if we accept her arguments about being led astray by a bad boyfriend. The Premier is responsible for her own actions and accountable for them. The Premier has exercised her own agency. She has made her own choices.

Finally, the NSW Premier shouldn’t have the luxury of unpicking decades of feminist progress. We cannot now claim that women are so weak of mind and heart that our romantic entanglements impair us from exercising scrutiny. We cannot now claim that our emotions stop us from living up to our ethical and professional responsibilities. Such a sexist argument is precisely the kind of thing that has been used by men in years gone by to keep women out of leadership roles in politics and the corporate world…

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

Presidential Campaign Update 21/10 – Bob McMullan

It remains the case that there is a stability around polling for the 2020 Presidential election. Individual polls vary slightly and state-by-state polling shows similar variations. But the trends and patterns are constant.

The overwhelming majority of mainstream pollsters and analysts suggest that with less than two weeks to go Joe Biden is 7-10% ahead in the national polls and ahead in states that would deliver 290-350 Electoral college votes.

There is still time for this pattern to change, for example as a result of the Presidential debate this week. The increased turn-out of early voters should not disguise the fact that most voters will vote on 3 November and therefore still have time to change their minds.

The alternative reality also continues. The minority of pollsters and analysts see a very close contest and a probable victory for Trump. I have discussed the arcane methodological underpinning of this difference in the past. Only the actual results will now determine which trend is accurate.

The three other discussion points are:

. who will win control of the Senate? and

. what are the likely impacts of different reporting and counting regimes in different states? and

. will Republican voter suppression efforts distort the results.

Senate

The Democrats need a net gain of 3 Senate seats to win control of the Senate if they win the Presidency. On the assumption that they lose the seat in Alabama which they won in extraordinary circumstances, Democrats will need to win 4 others.

The best prospects seem to be Colorado, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina (notwithstanding the Democratic candidate’s domestic troubles) and Maine. Democrats lead consistently in all 5 states. The others to watch are South Carolina, Alaska and Montana. There is also an outside chance for Democrats in Mississippi (where their candidate is Mike Espy who I met in the 1990s when he was Secretary of Agriculture) and for Republicans in Michigan.

I will have more to say about the various voting arrangements in different states next week, but the consensus appears to be that the reporting of early voting and absentee ballots should be quickest in Florida. North Carolina and Arizona also have cut-off dates and processing arrangements which should provide clarity on the night. Australian experience with postal voting would suggest that while some votes trickle in over the days subsequent to the voting day these are only decisive in the closest of contests.

On the question of voter suppression, some of it is hidden as the voters are unable to register to vote in the first place. However, the very significant number of people voting early (28 million so far) suggests that the undermining of confidence in the mail-in voting system has only succeeded in encouraging an increase in early in-person voting. It appears the turn-out will be large by American standards but how many voters were deterred by the long waiting times and restrictive physical arrangements for voting will be almost impossible to determine.

week beginning October 14

Searching For An Australian Identity, through discussion of A Country Practice  continues in Television comments

Zoom and Botox

The New Daily reports that ‘Zoom calls have Australians rushing for cosmetic surgery’. Evidently the demand for cosmetic surgery has tripled during Covid lockdown as ‘we are seeing ourselves from a completely different angle for hours a day. As a result more wrinkles, more unattractive angles and perceived flaws are coming to our notice.

Sales of beauty products have increased. There is more cosmetic work on teeth being investigated by those unhappy with their smiles.

Oh dear, and here am I informing people about zoom talks, and being involved in them myself. And, yes. I slap on make up at 9.00pm to join the talks. One useful product of seeing myself is that I realise I am touching my face all the time, so am even more committed to sanitising while out and about. Perhaps others take this more pedestrian, and useful, approach too – but The Daily News is probably less interested in this undramatic result of zoom.

Presidential Update 14/10 – Bob McMullan

The notable thing about the polling in this last week in which so much has happened is that not much has changed. To quote Hamlet the Trump rallies appear to be ” sound and fury signifying nothing.” ( For those who know their Shakespeare the preceding sentence will also resonate!). I have made an attempt to classify the battleground states by their probability of delivering a majority for Joe Biden.

A Pennsylvania Wisconsin Even the outlier Trafalgar polls suggest Biden will win these two. These would take Biden to 262 electoral college votes.

B Michigan Nebraska 2nd district The margin in both of these has been consistent and substantial. These would mean 279 EC votes and a narrow Biden victory.

C Florida North Carolina Arizona

Biden has been consistently ahead in all three of these although by narrower margins. Florida and North Carolina have improved significantly for him since the debate. The gap in Arizona has narrowed but has been the most consistent of the three. These would take Biden to 334 EC votes and look like a very big win.

D Ohio Iowa Georgia Maine 2nd district

These would be the icing on the cake. Biden has recently got in front on both RCP and 538 averages in Ohio and Iowa. Campaign activity certainly suggests they are in play. Georgia looks competitive but hard to call. The Maine district just has insufficient quality polling to be confident.Winning all these is unlikely but if Biden did win them we would be talking landslide, 375 to 163!The important reservation remains the outlier polls which if correct would mean a very close result.For those who remember the shock of 2016 let me remind you that Hillary Clinton led at this stage on average by 6 points with 14% undecided or going to minor parties. Biden leads by 10 or more with 6% to minor parties or undecided. None of this proves anything about what will eventually happen, but it describes the current situation and the possibilities.I will have more to say about this next week, but for those hoping to watch the results on the night ( next morning here) the key state which should give an early indication is Florida. Their vote counting arrangements should lead to a comprehensive early result.

The Wife by Meg Wolitzer is reviewed in Book Reviews.

Vice Presidental debate

Kamal Harris and Mike Pence met across screens – agreed to after much fulminating by the Republican organisers. Kamala is treating the pandemic as it should be – social distancing , wearing a mask, ensuring that her enforced situations with Republicans who seem to have learnt nothing since President Trump’s illness -something might have been expected despite ignoring the swathe it has cut through (Americans 217,086 deaths (Morning Joe, MSNBC, 9/10/20). In % terms that would be around 14,000 in Australia).

The debate was reflected upon on Facebook and the Australian Guardian (Theguardian.com, Oct 8) amongst other outlets. Although the fly that settled on Mike Pence created a lot of discussion, it was the Guardian article argument that interested me.

Although The Guardian stated that ‘Harris wiped the floor with him’ , The writer, Jill Filipovic found the debate ‘frustrating’, referring to the sexist manner in which Pence conducted himself.  Some contributors to Facebook found that this was a weak argument, made to excuse Harris’s failure to win the debate.  

 I thought Kamala Harris behaved as a person debating another competitor for VP. She got on with it, using her talents to win, obfuscate, deliver the arguments she wanted to deliver. I doubt she felt patronised or anything other than her desire to be in the winning team.  And she did – she does not need sympathy, patronising, or excuses. She is a winner, resoundingly so.  

The fly went on to confer with Amy Conan Barrett during the hearings into her nomination to be a Supreme Court Judge. We do not know whether the fly received more fruitful and  clear answers than those given to Democrat Senators.

Posts week beginning October 9, 2020

The following books are reviewed in Book Reviews. They were published in 2014, but resonate with current events in America. For example, vigilante movements, ‘the invention of whiteness’ and the demands on women as appendages of political men, as well as those they must adopt to be successful political figures in their own right.

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Heath Hardage Lee Winnie Davis Daughter of The Lost Cause, United States of America: Potomac Press, 2014. Blain Roberts Pageants, Parlors, & Pretty Women Race and Beauty in the Twentieth Century South, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 2014.Kate Cote Gillin Shrill Hurrahs Women, Gender, and Racial Violence in South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press, 2013.

Photo by Helena Lopes on Pexels.com

Television commentsA Country PracticeA Country Podcast; Searching for an Australian Identity.

I

First 2020 American Presidential Debate in 2016 I watched about to become President, Donald Trump move somewhat menacingly around the stage as former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton spoke.

On this occasion, Covid 19 prevented that from happening. However, former Vice President Biden was subjected to verbal bullying, to which he responded with some ripostes, resulting in the production of T Shirts with the statement ‘Will you shut up, man’.This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 30elections-briefing-tee-jumbo.png

Some discussion, in my view too much, conflated the men’s behaviour. Chris Wallace, the moderator put their behaviour in context when he later stated that President Trump interrupted Joe Biden and himself more than 144 times. The more recent Joe Biden Town Hall meeting, which was moderated (with the moderator following up questions if he believed that Biden had not answered the question fully) gave viewers the opportunity to hear Biden’s proposed policies, remedies for the racist ideas fostered during Trump’s presidency, and general perspectives on how a Biden/Harris team would bring the country together. Morning Joe reports that a CNN poll, taken after the debate and including one day of polling after the announcement that President Trump has Covid 19, shows that Biden’s position has improved once again. The following analysis of the polls deals with this and the other recent polls.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

Analysis of the American presidential polls

Bob McMullan’s Presidential Update 7/10

Bing photo

What an extraordinary week! With only 4 weeks to go to polling day and with millions of Americans having already voted we are now definitely at the pointy end of proceedings.

It is hard to believe that over the last weeks we have had the revelations about Trump’s tax history; the Woodward book about the corona virus; the death of RBG and the consequent fracas about the appointment; the “debate”; the Trump covid diagnosis and treatment and his decision to cut off negotiations about a relief package.

For the first time in weeks this cascade of events appears to be moving the polls, although not dramatically. The current situation, with one caveat I will come back to, has Joe Biden further ahead in the national polling (9%) and in an improved position in all the decisive states. RCP and 538 (and others) have him ahead in

Michigan by 5.2% (538 says 7.5%); Pennsylvania by 6.5%; Wisconsin by 5.6% (538 says 7.0%).

Remember, those three are enough to get to 270.

Florida has improved markedly to give Biden a lead of 3.5%; North Carolina has improved slightly (1.4%); Arizona (3.4%). These three plus the 2nd district in Nevada would put Biden on 334 Electoral College votes.

In the less critical states the trends appear mixed. Biden has moved slightly ahead in Georgia for the first time in both averages. Iowa remains close (RCP has Biden ahead,538 has him behind). In Ohio Biden appears to have fallen back although this result is driven by an outlier poll from Trafalgar which has Trump ahead by4%.

The improving trend for Biden is not reflected in the polling by Trafalgar and Rasmussen, which have a history of showing results more favourable to Republicans. But it is rash to assume they are wrong. The issue is the ” hidden” Trump voters. Most commentators consider that they exist.

Australians would be familiar with a similar phenomenon with an apparent “hidden” Hanson vote. I am not convinced. My theory is that the surprise result in the key rustbelt states was driven by the late breaking trend to Trump amongst undecideds in 2016. If it exists it is hard to believe it is of a scale to justify the difference in outcomes forecast.

In Michigan the difference between the consensus result and Trafalgar is of the order of 7-8%. Given that there are almost 8 million registered voters in Michigan this would mean there would need to be more than half a million hidden voters! And yet, the difference did not show up in the national polling/result differential in 2016. The polling averages were nearly spot-on the result nationally. It is hard to justify an argument that the only hidden Trump vote exists only in the rust belt.

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On balance I believe the trend is real and suggests Biden has a clear path to victory and Trump is struggling to establish one. However, it is, to say the least, a dynamic situation and the contradictory polls remain a query over the basic trends.

So, we will have to wait and see.

.

CHALLENGING TOMORROW – THE POLITICAL IS ALWAYS PERSONAL

A series on zoom on women’s rights, challenges, perspectives, hopes and empowerment

‘UP FROM UNDER – REACHING THE MOUNTAIN TOP – AND CLAIMING THE SKIES!’

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Photo Robin Joyce

Brilliant & Bold – Bold & Brilliant provides an opportunity to hear from ‘ordinary’ and ‘extraordinary’ women in conversation, with questions, answers, reflections and musings on the state of the world and women’s role in it. Two hours with women sharing experiences, hopes, knowledge and beliefs about where we are right now, and from where we have come.

Sunday 11 October 2020 – via Zoom – 11am UK time … 12noon Pisa, Italy … 9pm Melbourne /Sydney /Canberra, Australia … 6am Tampa, Florida … 4am Denver, Colorado

Photo Robin Joyce


Jocelynne Scutt is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!

Time: Oct 11, 2020 11:00 AM London

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88098944189?pwd=dVhhOCtKREkvcmpoRWs1NHJENXNBUT09

Meeting ID: 880 9894 4189

Passcode: 645991

SPEAKERS – HANNAH TURNER, FELICITY BETH, ANNA KERR, YOLANDA COPES-STEPNEY

Anna Kerr is founder and Principal Solicitor of Feminist Legal Clinic Inc. which is a community legal service based in Sydney, Australia… Anna has been admitted as a solicitor for 28 years, beginning her career with the Aboriginal Legal Service…She has also undertaken short stints teaching, lecturing and in government roles. 

Born in Perth, Western Australia, Felicity Beth has lived in the United States since the mid-1970s, where she has worked for some 30 years in the hospitality industry…Felicity has spoken at numerous USA primary and secondary schools on the topic of Australia – Australian politics, European/USA influences on Australia and its history since colonisation, and in relation to Australian Indigenous people. For five years she worked as a volunteer with Denver, Colorado Rape Assistance Hotline, and considers that her political interests and activism stem from her growing up with political discussion raging around the dinner table.

Hannah Turner is a recent graduate of Northumbria University. She graduated with a first-class honour’s degree in Law and received the Linda Sykes Memorial award for her efforts after receiving the highest overall mark in her cohort. She completed her master’s dissertation on the topic of consent within the Sexual Offences Act 2003 and it was at this time she found this topic to be a real passion…Hannah is currently working in a law firm in the North East of England. She is working predominantly on criminal appeal cases and prison law matters.

An entrepreneur, podcaster, presenter and writer, Yolanda Copes-Stepney lives in London. After gaining her degree in journalism, she went on to become a freelance journalist, PR and content specialist working for international brands. At the beginning of 2016 she founded Speak&Do, a media agency with all-female staff that manage and represents influencers in the activism and wellbeing space. She is founder of Speak On, a podcast and event series that explores culture and society;  Festival Of Confidence, and ConfidenceFest, YouTube shows, events and retreats designed to empower women; and Own Brand Agency that provides affordable brand and personal profile development for SME’s, charity organisations and individuals. Plus a few more…She is a proud tattooed geek and dedicated Star Wars’ fan. ​

Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!

Further zoom meetings at 11.00 am London (9.00 pm Australia):        
       
       Nov 8, 2020
        Dec 13, 2020
        Jan 10, 2021
        Feb 14, 2021
        Mar 14, 2021
        Apr 11, 2021
        May 9, 2021
        Jun 13, 2021
       Jul 11, 2021
        Aug 8, 2021
        Sep 12, 2021

Added to Book Reviews: Charity Norman Collection (kindle Edition) – 5 novels, with topics ranging over adoption, domestic violence, impact of moving from one country to another, transgender and cult control.