week beginning October 14

Searching For An Australian Identity, through discussion of A Country Practice  continues in Television comments

Zoom and Botox

The New Daily reports that ‘Zoom calls have Australians rushing for cosmetic surgery’. Evidently the demand for cosmetic surgery has tripled during Covid lockdown as ‘we are seeing ourselves from a completely different angle for hours a day. As a result more wrinkles, more unattractive angles and perceived flaws are coming to our notice.

Sales of beauty products have increased. There is more cosmetic work on teeth being investigated by those unhappy with their smiles.

Oh dear, and here am I informing people about zoom talks, and being involved in them myself. And, yes. I slap on make up at 9.00pm to join the talks. One useful product of seeing myself is that I realise I am touching my face all the time, so am even more committed to sanitising while out and about. Perhaps others take this more pedestrian, and useful, approach too – but The Daily News is probably less interested in this undramatic result of zoom.

Presidential Update 14/10 – Bob McMullan

The notable thing about the polling in this last week in which so much has happened is that not much has changed. To quote Hamlet the Trump rallies appear to be ” sound and fury signifying nothing.” ( For those who know their Shakespeare the preceding sentence will also resonate!). I have made an attempt to classify the battleground states by their probability of delivering a majority for Joe Biden.

A Pennsylvania Wisconsin Even the outlier Trafalgar polls suggest Biden will win these two. These would take Biden to 262 electoral college votes.

B Michigan Nebraska 2nd district The margin in both of these has been consistent and substantial. These would mean 279 EC votes and a narrow Biden victory.

C Florida North Carolina Arizona

Biden has been consistently ahead in all three of these although by narrower margins. Florida and North Carolina have improved significantly for him since the debate. The gap in Arizona has narrowed but has been the most consistent of the three. These would take Biden to 334 EC votes and look like a very big win.

D Ohio Iowa Georgia Maine 2nd district

These would be the icing on the cake. Biden has recently got in front on both RCP and 538 averages in Ohio and Iowa. Campaign activity certainly suggests they are in play. Georgia looks competitive but hard to call. The Maine district just has insufficient quality polling to be confident.Winning all these is unlikely but if Biden did win them we would be talking landslide, 375 to 163!The important reservation remains the outlier polls which if correct would mean a very close result.For those who remember the shock of 2016 let me remind you that Hillary Clinton led at this stage on average by 6 points with 14% undecided or going to minor parties. Biden leads by 10 or more with 6% to minor parties or undecided. None of this proves anything about what will eventually happen, but it describes the current situation and the possibilities.I will have more to say about this next week, but for those hoping to watch the results on the night ( next morning here) the key state which should give an early indication is Florida. Their vote counting arrangements should lead to a comprehensive early result.

The Wife by Meg Wolitzer is reviewed in Book Reviews.

Vice Presidental debate

Kamal Harris and Mike Pence met across screens – agreed to after much fulminating by the Republican organisers. Kamala is treating the pandemic as it should be – social distancing , wearing a mask, ensuring that her enforced situations with Republicans who seem to have learnt nothing since President Trump’s illness -something might have been expected despite ignoring the swathe it has cut through (Americans 217,086 deaths (Morning Joe, MSNBC, 9/10/20). In % terms that would be around 14,000 in Australia).

The debate was reflected upon on Facebook and the Australian Guardian (Theguardian.com, Oct 8) amongst other outlets. Although the fly that settled on Mike Pence created a lot of discussion, it was the Guardian article argument that interested me.

Although The Guardian stated that ‘Harris wiped the floor with him’ , The writer, Jill Filipovic found the debate ‘frustrating’, referring to the sexist manner in which Pence conducted himself.  Some contributors to Facebook found that this was a weak argument, made to excuse Harris’s failure to win the debate.  

 I thought Kamala Harris behaved as a person debating another competitor for VP. She got on with it, using her talents to win, obfuscate, deliver the arguments she wanted to deliver. I doubt she felt patronised or anything other than her desire to be in the winning team.  And she did – she does not need sympathy, patronising, or excuses. She is a winner, resoundingly so.  

The fly went on to confer with Amy Conan Barrett during the hearings into her nomination to be a Supreme Court Judge. We do not know whether the fly received more fruitful and  clear answers than those given to Democrat Senators.

Posts week beginning October 9, 2020

The following books are reviewed in Book Reviews. They were published in 2014, but resonate with current events in America. For example, vigilante movements, ‘the invention of whiteness’ and the demands on women as appendages of political men, as well as those they must adopt to be successful political figures in their own right.

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Heath Hardage Lee Winnie Davis Daughter of The Lost Cause, United States of America: Potomac Press, 2014. Blain Roberts Pageants, Parlors, & Pretty Women Race and Beauty in the Twentieth Century South, North Carolina: University of North Carolina Press, 2014.Kate Cote Gillin Shrill Hurrahs Women, Gender, and Racial Violence in South Carolina: University of South Carolina Press, 2013.

Photo by Helena Lopes on Pexels.com

Television commentsA Country PracticeA Country Podcast; Searching for an Australian Identity.

I

First 2020 American Presidential Debate in 2016 I watched about to become President, Donald Trump move somewhat menacingly around the stage as former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton spoke.

On this occasion, Covid 19 prevented that from happening. However, former Vice President Biden was subjected to verbal bullying, to which he responded with some ripostes, resulting in the production of T Shirts with the statement ‘Will you shut up, man’.This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is 30elections-briefing-tee-jumbo.png

Some discussion, in my view too much, conflated the men’s behaviour. Chris Wallace, the moderator put their behaviour in context when he later stated that President Trump interrupted Joe Biden and himself more than 144 times. The more recent Joe Biden Town Hall meeting, which was moderated (with the moderator following up questions if he believed that Biden had not answered the question fully) gave viewers the opportunity to hear Biden’s proposed policies, remedies for the racist ideas fostered during Trump’s presidency, and general perspectives on how a Biden/Harris team would bring the country together. Morning Joe reports that a CNN poll, taken after the debate and including one day of polling after the announcement that President Trump has Covid 19, shows that Biden’s position has improved once again. The following analysis of the polls deals with this and the other recent polls.

Photo by Markus Winkler on Pexels.com

Analysis of the American presidential polls

Bob McMullan’s Presidential Update 7/10

Bing photo

What an extraordinary week! With only 4 weeks to go to polling day and with millions of Americans having already voted we are now definitely at the pointy end of proceedings.

It is hard to believe that over the last weeks we have had the revelations about Trump’s tax history; the Woodward book about the corona virus; the death of RBG and the consequent fracas about the appointment; the “debate”; the Trump covid diagnosis and treatment and his decision to cut off negotiations about a relief package.

For the first time in weeks this cascade of events appears to be moving the polls, although not dramatically. The current situation, with one caveat I will come back to, has Joe Biden further ahead in the national polling (9%) and in an improved position in all the decisive states. RCP and 538 (and others) have him ahead in

Michigan by 5.2% (538 says 7.5%); Pennsylvania by 6.5%; Wisconsin by 5.6% (538 says 7.0%).

Remember, those three are enough to get to 270.

Florida has improved markedly to give Biden a lead of 3.5%; North Carolina has improved slightly (1.4%); Arizona (3.4%). These three plus the 2nd district in Nevada would put Biden on 334 Electoral College votes.

In the less critical states the trends appear mixed. Biden has moved slightly ahead in Georgia for the first time in both averages. Iowa remains close (RCP has Biden ahead,538 has him behind). In Ohio Biden appears to have fallen back although this result is driven by an outlier poll from Trafalgar which has Trump ahead by4%.

The improving trend for Biden is not reflected in the polling by Trafalgar and Rasmussen, which have a history of showing results more favourable to Republicans. But it is rash to assume they are wrong. The issue is the ” hidden” Trump voters. Most commentators consider that they exist.

Australians would be familiar with a similar phenomenon with an apparent “hidden” Hanson vote. I am not convinced. My theory is that the surprise result in the key rustbelt states was driven by the late breaking trend to Trump amongst undecideds in 2016. If it exists it is hard to believe it is of a scale to justify the difference in outcomes forecast.

In Michigan the difference between the consensus result and Trafalgar is of the order of 7-8%. Given that there are almost 8 million registered voters in Michigan this would mean there would need to be more than half a million hidden voters! And yet, the difference did not show up in the national polling/result differential in 2016. The polling averages were nearly spot-on the result nationally. It is hard to justify an argument that the only hidden Trump vote exists only in the rust belt.

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On balance I believe the trend is real and suggests Biden has a clear path to victory and Trump is struggling to establish one. However, it is, to say the least, a dynamic situation and the contradictory polls remain a query over the basic trends.

So, we will have to wait and see.

.

CHALLENGING TOMORROW – THE POLITICAL IS ALWAYS PERSONAL

A series on zoom on women’s rights, challenges, perspectives, hopes and empowerment

‘UP FROM UNDER – REACHING THE MOUNTAIN TOP – AND CLAIMING THE SKIES!’

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Photo Robin Joyce

Brilliant & Bold – Bold & Brilliant provides an opportunity to hear from ‘ordinary’ and ‘extraordinary’ women in conversation, with questions, answers, reflections and musings on the state of the world and women’s role in it. Two hours with women sharing experiences, hopes, knowledge and beliefs about where we are right now, and from where we have come.

Sunday 11 October 2020 – via Zoom – 11am UK time … 12noon Pisa, Italy … 9pm Melbourne /Sydney /Canberra, Australia … 6am Tampa, Florida … 4am Denver, Colorado

Photo Robin Joyce


Jocelynne Scutt is inviting you to a scheduled Zoom meeting.

Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!

Time: Oct 11, 2020 11:00 AM London

https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88098944189?pwd=dVhhOCtKREkvcmpoRWs1NHJENXNBUT09

Meeting ID: 880 9894 4189

Passcode: 645991

SPEAKERS – HANNAH TURNER, FELICITY BETH, ANNA KERR, YOLANDA COPES-STEPNEY

Anna Kerr is founder and Principal Solicitor of Feminist Legal Clinic Inc. which is a community legal service based in Sydney, Australia… Anna has been admitted as a solicitor for 28 years, beginning her career with the Aboriginal Legal Service…She has also undertaken short stints teaching, lecturing and in government roles. 

Born in Perth, Western Australia, Felicity Beth has lived in the United States since the mid-1970s, where she has worked for some 30 years in the hospitality industry…Felicity has spoken at numerous USA primary and secondary schools on the topic of Australia – Australian politics, European/USA influences on Australia and its history since colonisation, and in relation to Australian Indigenous people. For five years she worked as a volunteer with Denver, Colorado Rape Assistance Hotline, and considers that her political interests and activism stem from her growing up with political discussion raging around the dinner table.

Hannah Turner is a recent graduate of Northumbria University. She graduated with a first-class honour’s degree in Law and received the Linda Sykes Memorial award for her efforts after receiving the highest overall mark in her cohort. She completed her master’s dissertation on the topic of consent within the Sexual Offences Act 2003 and it was at this time she found this topic to be a real passion…Hannah is currently working in a law firm in the North East of England. She is working predominantly on criminal appeal cases and prison law matters.

An entrepreneur, podcaster, presenter and writer, Yolanda Copes-Stepney lives in London. After gaining her degree in journalism, she went on to become a freelance journalist, PR and content specialist working for international brands. At the beginning of 2016 she founded Speak&Do, a media agency with all-female staff that manage and represents influencers in the activism and wellbeing space. She is founder of Speak On, a podcast and event series that explores culture and society;  Festival Of Confidence, and ConfidenceFest, YouTube shows, events and retreats designed to empower women; and Own Brand Agency that provides affordable brand and personal profile development for SME’s, charity organisations and individuals. Plus a few more…She is a proud tattooed geek and dedicated Star Wars’ fan. ​

Topic: Brilliant & Bold! Bold & Brilliant!

Further zoom meetings at 11.00 am London (9.00 pm Australia):        
       
       Nov 8, 2020
        Dec 13, 2020
        Jan 10, 2021
        Feb 14, 2021
        Mar 14, 2021
        Apr 11, 2021
        May 9, 2021
        Jun 13, 2021
       Jul 11, 2021
        Aug 8, 2021
        Sep 12, 2021

Added to Book Reviews: Charity Norman Collection (kindle Edition) – 5 novels, with topics ranging over adoption, domestic violence, impact of moving from one country to another, transgender and cult control.